Iowa Senate race flips to Hinson by 0.2 points
Ashley Hinson now leads Josh Turek in Iowa after a new InsiderAdvantage poll, and Democrats' Senate chance eased from 63% to 61%. Virginia's 1st House district also tightened sharply.
Chamber control
Where the race stands
Oct 25, 2026, 5:23 AM EDTDemocrats are favoured to control the House, 93% to 7% for Republicans; Democrats are favoured to control the Senate, 61% to 39% for Republicans.
Taken together, the single likeliest outcome is Democratic majorities in both chambers, at 60%. Congress ending up divided between the two parties is a 33% proposition.
Central estimates: 241 of 435 House seats for Democrats, a net gain of 27 on the 214 they hold now; 51 of 100 Senate seats for Democrats, a net gain of 4 on the 47 they hold now.
The national environment sits at Democrats +7.1 points on the House popular vote. It has moved 0.7 points toward Democrats over the past month.
Votes and seats are not the same thing: a party can win more votes nationally and still lose the chamber. Here Democrats lead the national vote in 99% of simulations but win the House in 93% — a 6-point gap that comes from how districts are drawn, not from any thumb on the scale. The national vote itself runs from D+4.9 to D+13.0 across the middle 80%.
80% of simulations put the House between 221 and 262 Democratic seats, which is the honest width of this forecast 9 days out.
Written from this run’s output, not by hand — it changes when the model does.
Key races to watch
Every contest the model currently projects inside the margin below, closest first. Selected on the projected margin rather than the odds: a narrow lead early and a narrow lead late are the same margin and very different probabilities, and the question here is how close the candidates are.
Senate
within 5 pointsHouse
within 2 points · closest 20 of 21WI-01Berman v SteilD +0.2Tilt D4 pollsPA-10Stelson v PerryD +0.2Tilt D7 pollsMI-04McCann v HuizengaD +0.4Tilt D4 pollsVA-01Taylor v WittmanD +0.4Tilt D5 pollsTX-35Garcia v CruzR +0.5Tilt R4 pollsOH-10Knickerbocker v TurnerD +0.5Tilt D3 pollsKY-06Dembo v AlvaradoD +0.6Tilt D9 pollsFL-07Dalton v ElijahR +0.6Tilt R1 pollSC-01Lacore v HoneycuttR +0.6Tilt Rno pollsWA-03Perez v BraunD +0.8Tilt D5 pollsAZ-02Nez v CraneR +1.2Tilt R3 pollsMN-01Johnson v FinstadR +1.2Tilt R6 pollsWI-03Cooke v OrdenD +1.3Tilt D6 pollsOH-09Kaptur v MerrinD +1.4Tilt D2 pollsPA-08Cognetti v BresnahanD +1.4Tilt D5 pollsMT-01Forstag v FlintD +1.5Tilt D8 pollsAL-02Figures v MarquesR +1.7Tilt R3 pollsIA-02James v MitchellD +1.8Tilt D3 pollsCO-05Killin v CrankR +1.8Tilt R4 pollsME-02Dunlap v LePageD +1.8Tilt D8 polls
The margin is this site’s projection, not a single poll: it blends the polling with the district’s fundamentals, so a race marked no polls is one where no public survey has been published and the estimate rests on the fundamentals alone. Those are worth watching precisely because there is least to go on.
Paths to control
Every seat still genuinely in play, and how often each party takes it across the simulated elections. Pick a seat to assume it is won and watch the rest of the map move: the races are not independent, so a party taking a seat it was not expected to take is evidence about the whole year rather than about that seat alone. These are counted across the simulations, not multiplied together — multiplying would treat each race as its own sealed contest and understate how much they rise and fall as one.
Senate
IDR 100MTR 100MAD 100RID 100ORD 100WYR 100SDR 100ILD 100NJD 100COD 100NER 100KYR 98WVR 100VAD 100DED 100NMD 100ARR 96TNR 100NCD 95OKR 100LAR 96MSR 95ALR 100GAD 95FLR 90
61% Democrats hold the Senate
39% Republicans hold it
Click a state to assume it goes Democratic, again for Republican, again to release it. Everything else is recounted over only the elections that agree with you.
Each bar runs from the middle toward whichever party is ahead, as far as that party’s chance of taking the seat. The tick marks where it sat before you assumed anything.
House
Democrats
93% to controlHow often Democrats take each seat across all 10 seats genuinely in play. Pick one to see the rest of the map in the elections where it goes that way.
A seat counts as in play when neither party takes it in nearly every simulation. Both parties are computed by the same method from the same draws, and the tick on each bar marks where that seat sits before any assumption is made.
What moved the forecast
167 new polls since Oct 18Re-running the model without them, the polls published since Oct 18 are worth R +1.1 on House control, R +6.6 on the Senate and — on the national environment.
RaceHouseSenatePolls behind it
IA-SEN—R +1.5InsiderAdvantageR+2Oct 22 · n=1,200co/efficientR+3Oct 19 · n=863+2 more
OH-SEN—R +1.1InsiderAdvantageD+3Oct 22 · n=1,200VerasightD+4Oct 20 · n=531+4 more
Each figure is the model re-run with that race’s new polls held out, so it is measured rather than inferred. Contributions do not sum to the total, because polls in the same race interact. It says what changed, not why.
In the coverage this week
Distribution of outcomes
200,000 simulationsHouse seatsmedian 240D/195R · 80% D 221–262 · R 173–214
Democrats win control · 218+ seats · 93%Republicans win control · 218+ seats · 7%
Senate seatsmedian 51D/49R · 80% D 48–54 · R 46–52
Democrats win control · 51+ seats · 61%Republicans win control · 50+ seats · 39%
How Congress could come out
joint outcomesDemocratic House and Senate60%
Democratic House, Republican Senate33%
Republican House and Senate6%
Republican House, Democratic Senate0%
Counted across 200,000 simulations, so the correlation between the two chambers is already in these figures. Multiplying the House and Senate probabilities together would give a different — and wrong — answer. Congress ends up divided in 33% of them.
The national environment
Generic congressional ballotnow D+6.2
Two-party margin, adjusted for house effects, likely-voter population and partisan sponsorship, then corrected for the question’s measured historical gap against the actual national vote. Plotted so that above the line favours Democrats and below favours Republicans. This is the single most important input to a midterm forecast.
Approval and favorabilitynet rating
−22.838% approve · 60% disapprove
11 polls from 7 pollsters in the active window, weighted the same way the forecast weights everything else. Different questions draw different pollsters, so gaps between two measures here are partly composition rather than opinion. Last polled Oct 6.
Approve minus disapprove, or favorable minus unfavorable. Presidential job approval is the one that feeds the model: together with the economy it sets the fundamentals prior, which carries the forecast where polling is thin and never fully drops out. The others are shown for context and change nothing in the forecast.
Forecast over time
May 25 – Oct 25Housechance of control
Axis cropped to 66–100% to show the movement. The 50% mark that decides control sits below this range, so the lead has not changed hands over this period.
Senatechance of control
Points before 2026-08-23 are reconstructed: the model was re-run at each past date using only polls published by then. Fundamentals and the candidate list are current rather than historical, so treat the early span as the polling story, not as a forecast published at the time. Everything from that date on was recorded live.
Where the majority turns
Tipping-point races
How often each district is the seat that delivers the 218th — a better measure of which races matter than closeness alone.
Governors to watch
The same rule as the watchlist above, applied to the governorships.
within 5 points
GA-GOVBottoms v JacksonR +0.8Tilt R14 pollsNV-GOVFord v LombardoR +0.8Tilt R8 pollsAK-GOVBegich v WilsonD +1.4Tilt D5 pollsOR-GOVKotek v DrazanD +2.2Tilt D8 pollsOH-GOVActon v RamaswamyD +2.7Lean D17 pollsVT-GOVJanoo v ScottR +3.2Lean R5 pollsTX-GOVHinojosa v AbbottR +3.3Lean R42 pollsKS-GOVHolscher v MastersonR +3.7Lean R7 pollsWI-GOVCrowley v TiffanyD +4.1Lean D10 pollsFL-GOVJolly v DonaldsR +4.7Lean R20 polls
Every race
506 contests506 races
| Democrat | Republican | Rating | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WI-01 | REP | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | D 51% | D+0.2 | R+3.6 | 4 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| PA-10 | REP | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | D 51% | D+0.2 | R+4.7 | 7 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| IA-SEN | REP | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | R 51% | R+0.2 | R+11.8 | 27 | — | Tilt R |
| VA-01 | REP | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | D 53% | D+0.4 | R+5.1 | 5 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| MI-04 | REP | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | D 53% | D+0.4 | R+4.9 | 4 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| SC-01 | REP | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R 53% | R+0.6 | R+11.8 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt R |
| KY-06 | REP | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | D 53% | D+0.6 | R+13.9 | 9 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| TX-35 | REP | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | R 53% | R+0.5 | R+8.1 | 4 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| FL-07 | REP | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | R 54% | R+0.6 | R+10.5 | 1 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| OH-10 | REP | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | D 54% | D+0.5 | R+7.0 | 3 | 1.3% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| KS-SEN | REP | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | R 55% | R+0.7 | R+15.7 | 12 | — | Tilt R |
| NV-GOV | REP | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | R 55% | R+0.8 | R+1.4 | 8 | — | Tilt R |
| WA-03 | DEM | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | John Braun | D 55% | D+0.8 | R+3.3 | 5 | 1.3% | Tilt D |
| AK-SEN | REP | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | R 55% | R+0.7 | R+12.7 | 16 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| GA-GOV | REP | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | R 55% | R+0.8 | R+1.3 | 14 | — | Tilt R |
| AZ-02 | REP | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | R 58% | R+1.2 | R+13.0 | 3 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| MN-01 | REP | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | R 58% | R+1.2 | R+11.2 | 6 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| WI-03 | REP | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | D 59% | D+1.3 | R+6.5 | 6 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| AK-GOV | REP | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | D 59% | D+1.4 | R+12.7 | 5 | — | Tilt DRCV |
| OH-09 | DEM | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | D 59% | D+1.4 | R+9.4 | 2 | 1.5% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| PA-08 | DEM | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | D 60% | D+1.4 | R+6.8 | 5 | 1.5% | Tilt D |
| MT-01 | REP | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | D 60% | D+1.5 | R+10.4 | 8 | 1.5% | Tilt D |
| TX-SEN | REP | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | D 61% | D+1.6 | R+11.5 | 47 | — | Tilt D |
| IA-02 | REP | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | D 62% | D+1.8 | R+8.4 | 3 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| AL-02 | DEM | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | R 62% | R+1.7 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.7% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| ME-02 | DEM | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | D 62% | D+1.8 | R+8.5 | 8 | 1.6% | Tilt DRCV |
| CO-05 | REP | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | R 62% | R+1.8 | R+9.3 | 4 | 0.8% | Tilt R |
| OH-15 | REP | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | R 63% | R+1.9 | R+9.1 | 4 | 0.7% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| MO-02 | REP | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | R 64% | R+2.1 | R+11.2 | 3 | 0.7% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| OR-GOV | DEM | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | D 64% | D+2.2 | D+15.7 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| OH-SEN | REP | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D 66% | D+2.4 | R+10.2 | 23 | — | Lean D |
| ME-SEN | REP | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | D 66% | D+2.4 | D+8.0 | 22 | — | Lean D |
| OH-GOV | REP | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | D 67% | D+2.7 | R+10.2 | 17 | — | Lean D |
| TX-23 | REP | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | R 67% | R+2.6 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MI-10 | REP | Christina Hines | Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 68% | D+3.0 | R+4.9 | 2 | 1.7% | Lean D |
| VT-GOV | REP | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | R 68% | R+3.2 | D+34.1 | 5 | — | Lean R |
| MI-SEN | DEM | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | D 68% | D+2.9 | Even | 42 | — | Lean D |
| FL-22 | REP | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | D 69% | D+2.9 | R+6.9 | 2 | 1.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| PA-07 | REP | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | D 70% | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | 3 | 1.9% | Lean D |
| FL-09 | DEM | Darren Soto | Dan Green | R 71% | R+3.6 | R+14.8 | 2 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| PA-01 | REP | Robert Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | D 72% | D+3.2 | D+1.8 | 7 | 2.0% | Lean D |
| TX-GOV | REP | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | R 72% | R+3.3 | R+11.5 | 42 | — | Lean R |
| AZ-06 | REP | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | D 73% | D+3.5 | R+0.2 | 4 | 2.0% | Lean D |
| KS-GOV | DEM | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | R 73% | R+3.7 | R+15.7 | 7 | — | Lean R |
| FL-25 | DEM | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | D 73% | D+3.8 | R+5.3 | 2 | 1.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| MO-05 | DEM | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | R 74% | R+5.0 | R+17.3 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NJ-07 | REP | Rebecca Bennett | Tom Kean Jr. | D 74% | D+3.9 | R+0.2 | 2 | 1.9% | Lean D |
| IA-03 | REP | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | D 75% | D+4.4 | R+3.1 | 1 | 1.8% | Lean D |
| SC-SEN | REP | Annie Andrews | Generic Republican | R 75% | R+5.4 | R+16.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| WI-GOV | DEM | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | D 75% | D+4.1 | R+0.2 | 10 | — | Lean D |
| AZ-05 | REP | Christopher James | Daniel Keenan | R 75% | R+5.8 | R+19.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| FL-16 | REP | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | R 75% | R+5.5 | R+11.4 | 2 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NY-21 | REP | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | R 75% | R+4.3 | R+19.2 | 8 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| FL-14 | DEM | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | D 76% | D+4.4 | R+8.3 | 1 | 1.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-04 | REP | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R 76% | R+5.6 | R+10.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NV-02 | REP | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | R 76% | R+4.4 | R+13.2 | 3 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| NY-01 | REP | Christopher Gallant | Nick LaLota | R 77% | R+5.8 | R+7.8 | 2 | 0.4% | Lean R |
| OH-07 | REP | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | D 77% | D+4.4 | R+10.4 | 4 | 2.0% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-13 | REP | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | R 77% | R+4.2 | R+11.7 | 6 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-27 | REP | Eliott Rodriguez | Maria Salazar | R 77% | R+4.3 | R+10.8 | 3 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-GOV | REP | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | R 78% | R+4.7 | R+10.4 | 20 | — | Lean R |
| IA-01 | REP | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | D 78% | D+5.4 | R+6.8 | 3 | 1.7% | Lean D |
| CO-08 | REP | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | D 78% | D+4.9 | D+0.1 | 1 | 1.9% | Lean D |
| VA-02 | REP | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | D 79% | D+4.9 | D+0.7 | 2 | 1.9% | Lean D |
| TX-34 | DEM | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | D 79% | D+4.6 | R+6.6 | 5 | 2.2% | Lean Dredrawn |
| WA-05 | REP | Carmela Conroy | Michael Baumgartner | R 79% | R+5.0 | R+10.6 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| NC-11 | REP | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | D 80% | D+5.7 | R+9.7 | 1 | 1.7% | Lean Dredrawn |
| MI-07 | REP | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | D 80% | D+4.9 | R+0.4 | 3 | 2.2% | Lean D |
| NC-09 | REP | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | R 80% | R+5.4 | R+15.2 | 2 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| TX-15 | REP | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | D 80% | D+5.2 | R+13.8 | 8 | 2.0% | Lean Dredrawn |
| AZ-01 | REP | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | D 81% | D+6.2 | R+1.6 | 2 | 1.6% | Lean D |
| CO-03 | REP | Dwayne Romero | Jeffrey Hurd | R 81% | R+5.0 | R+9.3 | 2 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| NC-03 | REP | Raymond Smith | Greg Murphy | R 81% | R+6.8 | R+12.1 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NC-13 | REP | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | R 81% | R+7.0 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-11 | REP | James Pericola | Joe Strada | R 82% | R+7.7 | R+14.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NY-17 | REP | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | D 82% | D+5.2 | D+3.3 | 4 | 2.1% | Lean D |
| VA-05 | REP | Thomas Perriello | John McGuire | R 82% | R+5.2 | R+11.1 | 3 | 0.2% | Lean R |
| NE-01 | REP | Christopher Backemeyer | Mike Flood | R 82% | R+5.3 | R+12.4 | 5 | 0.2% | Lean R |
| NC-01 | DEM | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | D 82% | D+5.7 | R+10.2 | 7 | 2.0% | Lean Dredrawn |
| GA-01 | REP | Amanda Hollowell | James Kingston | R 82% | R+7.9 | R+15.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| GA-11 | REP | Chris Harden | John Cowan | R 83% | R+9.3 | R+22.9 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean R |
| NC-07 | REP | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | R 83% | R+6.8 | R+13.0 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| IA-GOV | REP | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | D 84% | D+6.1 | R+11.8 | 20 | — | Lean D |
| MN-SEN | DEM | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | D 84% | D+6.2 | D+5.4 | 12 | — | Lean D |
| FL-08 | REP | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | R 84% | R+9.0 | R+14.7 | 1 | 0.3% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MI-GOV | DEM | Jocelyn Benson | John James | D 85% | D+6.2 | Even | 24 | — | Lean D |
| NE-GOV | REP | Lynne Walz+ Brett Lindstrom (I) | Jim Pillen | R 85% | R+6.2 | R+20.2 | 7 | — | Likely RIND on ballot |
| OH-08 | REP | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R 86% | R+8.4 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-08 | REP | Trina Swanson | Peter Stauber | R 86% | R+8.5 | R+13.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| FL-02 | REP | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | R 86% | R+9.4 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-05 | REP | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | R 87% | R+9.0 | R+17.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CO-04 | REP | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | R 87% | R+7.1 | R+18.5 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| AZ-GOV | DEM | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | D 88% | D+7.4 | R+3.8 | 17 | — | Likely D |
| NC-06 | REP | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | R 89% | R+9.6 | R+16.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-32 | REP | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | R 89% | R+10.5 | R+15.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AR-02 | REP | Chris Jones | French Hill | R 89% | R+7.1 | R+15.2 | 3 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| OH-01 | DEM | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | D 89% | D+7.3 | R+1.6 | 3 | 1.8% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TX-24 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-24) | Elizabeth Van Duyne | R 89% | R+9.8 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NH-01 | DEM | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | D 89% | D+8.7 | D+3.4 | 2 | 1.4% | Likely D |
| OK-01 | REP | John Croisant | Jackson Lahmeyer | R 90% | R+11.0 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| TX-02 | REP | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | R 90% | R+11.3 | R+22.5 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-12 | REP | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | R 90% | R+10.2 | R+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| UT-02 | REP | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | R 90% | R+9.2 | R+30.1 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-14 | REP | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | R 90% | R+9.5 | R+15.2 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-09 | REP | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | R 90% | R+8.8 | R+18.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NH-SEN | DEM | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | D 90% | D+8.0 | D+4.3 | 13 | — | Likely D |
| FL-SEN | REP | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | R 90% | R+7.4 | R+10.4 | 18 | — | Likely R |
| FL-12 | REP | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | R 90% | R+10.4 | R+12.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-09 | REP | Leticia Gutierrez | Alexandra Mealer | R 91% | R+8.7 | R+16.9 | 3 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-08 | REP | Bernadette Greene Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | R 91% | R+10.8 | R+15.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NY-02 | REP | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | R 91% | R+10.9 | R+10.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-08 | REP | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | R 91% | R+10.8 | R+15.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| IN-05 | REP | James Ford | Victoria Spartz | R 91% | R+7.9 | R+16.6 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| SC-07 | REP | John Vincent | Russell Fry | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+24.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-06 | REP | Democratic candidate (WI-06) | Glenn Grothman | R 92% | R+11.0 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| WI-07 | REP | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | R 92% | R+12.1 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| CA-06 | IND | Richard Pan | Kevin Kiley | D 92% | D+15.9 | D+10.1 | 1 | 0.5% | Likely Dredrawn |
| SC-02 | REP | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | R 92% | R+11.4 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NY-03 | DEM | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | D 92% | D+11.4 | R+0.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Likely D |
| CA-22 | REP | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | D 92% | D+9.4 | D+3.3 | 1 | 1.3% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NJ-02 | REP | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | R 93% | R+9.8 | R+10.9 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NM-02 | DEM | Gabriel Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | D 93% | D+8.9 | D+0.5 | 3 | 1.4% | Likely D |
| MI-01 | REP | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | R 93% | R+11.8 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| CA-48 | DEM | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | D 93% | D+10.6 | D+4.8 | 4 | 1.0% | Likely Dredrawn |
| GA-10 | REP | Pamela DeLancy | Houston Gaines | R 93% | R+13.1 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| FL-26 | REP | Nicole Locklin | Mario Diaz-Balart | R 94% | R+12.3 | R+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| WA-04 | REP | John Duresky | Amanda McKinney | R 94% | R+13.3 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TX-21 | REP | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | R 94% | R+13.5 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-GOV | REP | Cyndi Munson | Gentner Drummond | R 94% | R+13.6 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| NM-GOV | DEM | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | D 94% | D+10.5 | D+7.7 | 5 | — | Likely D |
| OK-05 | REP | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | R 94% | R+10.4 | R+18.4 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TX-38 | REP | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | R 95% | R+14.1 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NV-01 | DEM | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | D 95% | D+12.9 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| MO-03 | REP | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | R 95% | R+13.0 | R+19.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| GA-SEN | DEM | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | D 95% | D+9.5 | R+1.3 | 13 | — | Likely D |
| TX-22 | REP | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | R 95% | R+14.3 | R+21.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| UT-04 | REP | Jonathan Larsen | Mike Kennedy | R 95% | R+12.2 | R+33.4 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MS-SEN | REP | Scott Colom+ Ty Pinkins (I) | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R 95% | R+10.6 | R+21.2 | 3 | — | Likely RIND on ballot |
| SC-05 | REP | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | R 95% | R+14.3 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TN-05 | REP | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | R 95% | R+11.7 | R+20.4 | 2 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-10 | REP | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | R 95% | R+11.4 | R+17.1 | 1 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-18 | REP | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | R 95% | R+13.5 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-05 | REP | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | R 95% | R+13.5 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-08 | REP | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | R 95% | R+13.5 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NH-GOV | REP | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | R 95% | R+10.1 | D+4.3 | 9 | — | Likely R |
| MI-08 | DEM | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas J. Smith | D 95% | D+13.6 | R+0.7 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| FL-21 | REP | James Martin | Brian Mast | R 95% | R+12.5 | R+14.2 | 1 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| PA-11 | REP | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | R 95% | R+13.7 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| NC-SEN | REP | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D 95% | D+10.5 | R+2.5 | 35 | — | Likely D |
| OH-14 | REP | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | R 95% | R+13.8 | R+19.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-GOV | DEM | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | D 95% | D+10.9 | D+5.4 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| KS-04 | REP | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | R 96% | R+13.8 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| LA-SEN | REP | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | R 96% | R+11.2 | R+21.2 | 2 | — | Likely R |
| MD-01 | REP | Daniel Schwartz | Andy Harris | R 96% | R+11.5 | R+16.4 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| NV-03 | DEM | Susie Lee | Marty O'Donnell | D 96% | D+14.2 | D+1.5 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| AR-SEN | REP | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | R 96% | R+11.0 | R+30.4 | 6 | — | Likely R |
| MN-06 | REP | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | R 96% | R+14.5 | R+19.2 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| TN-08 | REP | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | R 96% | R+14.6 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| KS-02 | REP | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | R 96% | R+11.7 | R+18.9 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| TX-31 | REP | Justin Early | John Carter | R 96% | R+14.7 | R+20.8 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-27 | REP | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | R 96% | R+14.8 | R+20.1 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| MO-04 | REP | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | R 97% | R+14.9 | R+20.5 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| NV-04 | DEM | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | D 97% | D+15.0 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| TX-10 | REP | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | R 97% | R+14.1 | R+20.6 | 1 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-13 | DEM | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | D 97% | D+15.0 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NY-19 | DEM | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | D 97% | D+15.2 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| CA-05 | REP | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | R 97% | R+15.3 | R+19.3 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-07 | REP | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | R 97% | R+15.3 | R+21.4 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-16 | REP | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | R 97% | R+15.3 | R+22.5 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| MO-06 | REP | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | R 97% | R+16.8 | R+26.2 | 0 | — | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-28 | DEM | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | D 97% | D+13.6 | R+5.1 | 4 | 0.6% | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-16 | REP | Justin Wagner | George Kelly | R 97% | R+15.7 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CO-GOV | DEM | Phil Weiser+ Greg Lopez (I) | Victor Marx | D 97% | D+17.3 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| RI-GOV | DEM | Helena Foulkes | Elaine Pelino | D 97% | D+19.7 | D+16.3 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| TX-03 | REP | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | R 97% | R+16.3 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-45 | DEM | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | D 98% | D+16.3 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-09 | DEM | Nelida Pou | Rosemary Pino | D 98% | D+16.5 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Safe D |
| NY-23 | REP | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | R 98% | R+15.6 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| FL-15 | REP | Robert People | Laurel Lee | R 98% | R+16.6 | R+17.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| KY-SEN | REP | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | R 98% | R+14.6 | R+29.5 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| SC-GOV | REP | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | R 98% | R+12.8 | R+16.2 | 5 | — | Safe R |
| MN-02 | DEM | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | D 98% | D+12.9 | D+6.6 | 2 | 0.6% | Safe D |
| CA-23 | REP | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | R 98% | R+16.7 | R+17.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IN-01 | DEM | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | D 98% | D+16.8 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| OH-13 | DEM | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | D 98% | D+16.8 | D+4.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-17 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-17) | Pete Sessions | R 98% | R+16.9 | R+20.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-03 | REP | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | R 98% | R+16.9 | R+19.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-GOV | REP | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | R 98% | R+13.8 | R+28.2 | 6 | — | Safe R |
| IL-08 | DEM | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | D 98% | D+18.6 | D+9.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| NE-02 | REP | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | D 98% | D+13.3 | D+5.5 | 2 | 0.5% | Safe D |
| ME-GOV | DEM | Hannah Pingree+ Rick Bennett (I) | Robert Charles | D 98% | D+13.0 | D+8.0 | 11 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| NJ-05 | DEM | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | D 98% | D+17.4 | D+4.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| GA-07 | REP | Haiden Moburg | Rich McCormick | R 98% | R+17.5 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WI-05 | REP | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | R 98% | R+17.6 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-24 | REP | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | R 98% | R+17.8 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-05 | REP | Ruth Torres | Lance Gooden | R 98% | R+17.7 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-17 | REP | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | R 98% | R+17.9 | R+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-25 | REP | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | R 98% | R+17.8 | R+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-06 | REP | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | R 98% | R+17.8 | R+22.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-17 | DEM | Chris Deluzio | Jesse Vodvarka | D 98% | D+17.8 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| AL-GOV | REP | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | R 98% | R+14.3 | R+29.3 | 5 | — | Safe R |
| CA-25 | DEM | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | D 98% | D+18.1 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-04 | REP | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | D 98% | D+18.1 | D+5.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| KS-03 | DEM | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | D 98% | D+18.1 | D+4.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| FL-28 | REP | Phil Ehr | Carlos Gimenez | R 98% | R+18.1 | R+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-05 | REP | Daniel Burket | Bob Latta | R 98% | R+18.2 | R+23.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-07 | DEM | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | D 98% | D+18.2 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe D |
| AZ-04 | DEM | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | D 99% | D+18.3 | D+8.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-14 | REP | Richard Davis | Randy Weber | R 99% | R+18.4 | R+23.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AL-05 | REP | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | R 99% | R+18.5 | R+28.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-06 | REP | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | R 99% | R+20.1 | R+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-17 | DEM | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | D 99% | D+18.7 | D+5.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| WA-08 | DEM | Kim Schrier | Spencer Meline | D 99% | D+18.6 | D+6.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| SC-04 | REP | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | R 99% | R+18.9 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-03 | REP | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | R 99% | R+15.8 | R+29.7 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| TN-04 | REP | Victoria Broderick | Scott Desjarlais | R 99% | R+19.1 | R+21.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-12 | REP | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | R 99% | R+19.2 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-06 | DEM | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | D 99% | D+19.1 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| MI-03 | DEM | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | D 99% | D+19.3 | D+8.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| IL-04 | DEM | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | D 99% | D+30.2 | D+33.7 | 1 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-26 | REP | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | R 99% | R+19.8 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-03 | REP | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | R 99% | R+19.8 | R+25.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-01 | DEM | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | D 99% | D+19.9 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| LA-06 | DEM | Democratic candidate (LA-06) | Peter Williams | R 99% | R+21.8 | R+32.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-14 | DEM | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | D 99% | D+20.0 | D+7.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| MD-06 | DEM | April Delaney | Robin Ficker | D 99% | D+20.3 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CT-02 | DEM | Joe Courtney | George Austin | D 99% | D+20.3 | D+9.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| OR-05 | REP | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | D 99% | D+20.4 | D+9.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-12 | REP | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | Craig Goldman | R 99% | R+20.2 | R+22.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-36 | REP | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | R 99% | R+20.4 | R+23.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-03 | DEM | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | D 99% | D+20.5 | D+9.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-22 | DEM | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | D 99% | D+20.6 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IA-04 | REP | Dave Dawson | Chris McGowan | R 99% | R+23.2 | R+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CT-05 | DEM | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | D 99% | D+16.8 | D+7.3 | 1 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| OR-02 | REP | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | R 99% | R+21.2 | R+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-18 | DEM | Pat Ryan | Jackie Auringer | D 99% | D+17.2 | D+5.2 | 2 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-04 | REP | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | R 99% | R+21.4 | R+23.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-21 | DEM | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | D 99% | D+21.4 | D+10.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-11 | DEM | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | D 99% | D+21.4 | D+10.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-03 | DEM | Amerish Bera | Robb Tucker | D 99% | D+21.5 | D+11.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-04 | REP | Joseph MacKey | Jim Baird | R 99% | R+21.6 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VA-06 | REP | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | R 99% | R+21.0 | R+23.6 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| TX-08 | REP | Keith Coleman | Jessica Steinmann | R 99% | R+23.8 | R+25.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| UT-03 | REP | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | R 99% | R+21.6 | R+42.1 | 2 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-GOV | DEM | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | D 99% | D+16.1 | D+15.7 | 15 | — | Safe D |
| NY-11 | REP | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | R 99% | R+22.4 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WY-GOV | REP | Kenneth Casner | Eric Barlow | R 99.5% | R+24.8 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-04 | DEM | Valerie Hoyle | Monique Despain | D 99.5% | D+22.8 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MI-05 | REP | Christian Vukasovich | Timothy Walberg | R 99.5% | R+22.7 | R+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-09 | REP | James Graham | Erin Houchin | R 99.5% | R+22.7 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-47 | DEM | Dave Min | Jenny Rae Le Roux | D 99.5% | D+22.8 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-09 | DEM | Bill Keating | Robert MacAllister | D 99.5% | D+23.1 | D+13.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IN-02 | REP | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | R 99.5% | R+23.0 | R+25.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AL-SEN | REP | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | R 99.6% | R+20.4 | R+29.3 | 4 | — | Safe R |
| IL-13 | DEM | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | D 99.6% | D+23.2 | D+11.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NM-03 | DEM | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Martin Zamora | D 99.6% | D+17.9 | D+7.1 | 1 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| PA-06 | DEM | Chrissy Houlahan | Martin Young | D 99.6% | D+23.1 | D+12.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MI-11 | DEM | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | D 99.6% | D+25.4 | D+17.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-49 | DEM | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | D 99.6% | D+23.4 | D+13.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-03 | REP | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | R 99.6% | R+23.6 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-26 | DEM | Jacqui Irwin | Samuel Gallucci | D 99.6% | D+26.0 | D+17.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-SEN | REP | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | R 99.6% | R+25.6 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-02 | DEM | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | D 99.6% | D+23.7 | D+8.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IN-06 | REP | Cynthia Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | R 99.6% | R+23.5 | R+32.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MS-03 | REP | Michael Chiaradio | Mike Guest | R 99.6% | R+23.5 | R+27.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KS-01 | REP | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | R 99.6% | R+23.7 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NH-02 | DEM | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Williams | D 99.6% | D+16.6 | D+5.3 | 8 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NJ-06 | DEM | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | D 99.6% | D+23.9 | D+10.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| FL-19 | REP | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | R 99.7% | R+26.3 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-14 | REP | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | R 99.7% | R+24.0 | R+37.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-05 | REP | Dan McKay | Blake Miguez | R 99.7% | R+26.2 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| ID-02 | REP | Elinor Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | R 99.7% | R+21.4 | R+26.3 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| OR-06 | DEM | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | D 99.7% | D+24.5 | D+12.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-SEN | DEM | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | D 99.7% | D+24.6 | D+8.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-11 | DEM | Bill Foster | Jeffrey Walter | D 99.7% | D+24.3 | D+12.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-04 | REP | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | R 99.7% | R+26.9 | R+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-02 | REP | Benjamin Ambrose | John Moolenaar | R 99.7% | R+24.6 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| VA-10 | DEM | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | D 99.7% | D+25.2 | D+11.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AZ-09 | REP | Danielle Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | R 99.7% | R+25.2 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| FL-06 | REP | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | R 99.8% | R+25.1 | R+28.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| GA-08 | REP | James Cooper | Austin Scott | R 99.8% | R+25.4 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-35 | DEM | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | D 99.8% | D+25.6 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-SEN | DEM | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | D 99.8% | D+21.5 | D+7.3 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| DE-01 | DEM | Sarah McBride | Donyale Hall | D 99.8% | D+25.5 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-27 | DEM | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | D 99.8% | D+25.4 | D+12.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-SEN | DEM | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | D 99.8% | D+25.9 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-07 | DEM | Brittany Pettersen | Amanda Capobianco | D 99.8% | D+26.2 | D+15.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-01 | REP | Clyde Jones | Jerry Carl | R 99.8% | R+29.1 | R+34.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-38 | DEM | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | D 99.8% | D+29.1 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-08 | REP | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | R 99.8% | R+26.3 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-03 | REP | Tia Lebrun | Clay Higgins | R 99.8% | R+26.3 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NM-01 | DEM | Melanie Stansbury | Ndidiamaka Okpareke | D 99.8% | D+23.8 | D+13.8 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| CA-42 | DEM | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | D 99.8% | D+26.8 | D+15.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-SEN | DEM | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | D 99.8% | D+20.0 | D+13.0 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| AL-06 | REP | Keith Pilkington | Gary Palmer | R 99.8% | R+26.7 | R+34.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-14 | REP | David Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | R 99.8% | R+27.5 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-SEN | DEM | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | D 99.8% | D+27.5 | D+15.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-09 | REP | Nicholas Alex | Andrew Clyde | R 99.9% | R+27.3 | R+33.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ND-01 | REP | Trygve Hammer | Julie Fedorchak | R 99.9% | R+27.3 | R+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-04 | REP | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | R 99.9% | R+27.6 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-02 | REP | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | R 99.9% | R+26.9 | R+32.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-09 | REP | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | R 99.9% | R+27.7 | R+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| HI-GOV | DEM | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | D 99.9% | D+27.4 | D+25.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-09 | REP | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | R 99.9% | R+27.9 | R+31.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MN-07 | REP | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | R 99.9% | R+28.1 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-31 | DEM | Gilbert Cisneros | Eric Ching | D 99.9% | D+27.8 | D+16.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-39 | DEM | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | D 99.9% | D+28.2 | D+14.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-06 | DEM | Grace Meng | Juan Pagan | D 99.9% | D+27.6 | D+12.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-33 | DEM | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | D 99.9% | D+28.3 | D+14.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-03 | DEM | Rosa Delauro | Christopher Lancia | D 99.9% | D+28.5 | D+16.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| LA-04 | REP | Matthew Gromlich | Mike Johnson | R 99.9% | R+28.4 | R+33.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MT-02 | REP | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | R 99.9% | R+25.4 | R+29.4 | 1 | — | Safe R |
| NY-20 | DEM | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | D 99.9% | D+27.5 | D+16.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-04 | DEM | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | D 99.9% | D+28.8 | D+17.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-11 | REP | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | R 99.9% | R+28.4 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-04 | REP | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | R 99.9% | R+28.8 | R+28.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WY-01 | REP | Lisa Kinney | Chuck Gray | R 99.9% | R+31.8 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-01 | REP | Lauren Jewett | Steve Scalise | R >99.9% | R+28.4 | R+39.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-06 | DEM | Daniel Koh | John Field | D >99.9% | D+32.6 | D+23.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-09 | DEM | Josh Harder | John McBride | D >99.9% | D+29.6 | D+15.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MS-01 | REP | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | R >99.9% | R+29.4 | R+35.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NY-25 | DEM | Joe Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | D >99.9% | D+29.7 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-06 | REP | Malcolm Ritchie | Michael Rulli | R >99.9% | R+29.6 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-03 | REP | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | R >99.9% | R+29.4 | R+34.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WA-10 | DEM | Marilyn Strickland | Chris D. Chung | D >99.9% | D+29.3 | D+18.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| DE-SEN | DEM | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | D >99.9% | D+29.1 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-GOV | DEM | JB Pritzker | Darren Bailey | D >99.9% | D+20.1 | D+13.0 | 4 | — | Safe D |
| CA-20 | REP | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | R >99.9% | R+29.6 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-50 | DEM | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | D >99.9% | D+29.4 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-01 | DEM | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | D >99.9% | D+34.0 | D+24.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-12 | DEM | Summer Lee | Leonard Fechter | D >99.9% | D+29.8 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-15 | REP | Raymond Bilger | Glenn Thompson | R >99.9% | R+30.2 | R+37.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| RI-02 | DEM | Seth Magaziner | Victor Mellor | D >99.9% | D+20.5 | D+9.1 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| WA-06 | DEM | Emily Randall | Teresa Fox | D >99.9% | D+29.8 | D+19.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NM-SEN | DEM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | D >99.9% | D+21.5 | D+7.7 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| TN-SEN | REP | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | R >99.9% | R+24.1 | R+28.2 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| WY-SEN | REP | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | R >99.9% | R+33.5 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MD-GOV | DEM | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | D >99.9% | D+29.3 | D+31.0 | 3 | — | Safe D |
| CA-51 | DEM | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | D >99.9% | D+30.8 | D+20.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-01 | DEM | Richard Neal | Republican candidate (MA-01) | D >99.9% | D+30.4 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-02 | DEM | John Olszewski | David Wallace | D >99.9% | D+30.6 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-03 | DEM | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | D >99.9% | D+31.3 | D+22.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AR-GOV | REP | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R >99.9% | R+20.8 | R+30.4 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| SD-GOV | REP | Dan Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | R >99.9% | R+21.0 | R+28.9 | 4 | — | Safe R |
| SD-01 | REP | Nicole Gronli | Marty Jackley | R >99.9% | R+23.7 | R+28.9 | 3 | — | Safe R |
| FL-01 | REP | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | R >99.9% | R+32.1 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CT-GOV | DEM | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | D >99.9% | D+22.1 | D+16.5 | 12 | — | Safe D |
| AL-07 | DEM | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | D >99.9% | D+32.0 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-41 | DEM | Linda Sanchez | Mitch Clemmons | D >99.9% | D+31.9 | D+17.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-23 | DEM | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | D >99.9% | D+32.2 | D+17.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-15 | REP | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | R >99.9% | R+32.1 | R+39.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MO-07 | REP | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | R >99.9% | R+32.9 | R+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WV-02 | REP | Ahsan Parsi | Riley Moore | R >99.9% | R+31.6 | R+39.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-GOV | DEM | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | D >99.9% | D+23.3 | D+23.4 | 13 | — | Safe D |
| CA-46 | DEM | Lou Correa | David Pan | D >99.9% | D+33.4 | D+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-06 | DEM | Jason Crow | Khaleb Dammen | D >99.9% | D+33.9 | D+21.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-03 | DEM | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriguez | D >99.9% | D+33.0 | D+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-01 | DEM | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | D >99.9% | D+33.5 | D+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-12 | REP | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | R >99.9% | R+34.6 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-02 | REP | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | R >99.9% | R+34.7 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-09 | REP | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | R >99.9% | R+35.4 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WV-SEN | REP | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | R >99.9% | R+33.7 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-GOV | DEM | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | D >99.9% | D+24.6 | R+0.7 | 15 | — | Safe D |
| MD-03 | DEM | Sarah Elfreth | Penny Kennedy | D >99.9% | D+34.8 | D+25.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-26 | DEM | Timothy Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | D >99.9% | D+34.6 | D+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-GOV | REP | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | R >99.9% | R+23.9 | R+35.8 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| MA-GOV | DEM | Maura Healey | Mike Minogue | D >99.9% | D+25.6 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| AR-04 | REP | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | R >99.9% | R+36.3 | R+39.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-02 | DEM | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | D >99.9% | D+36.1 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-24 | DEM | Salud Carbajal | Robert Smith | D >99.9% | D+35.3 | D+27.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| ID-01 | REP | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R >99.9% | R+29.8 | R+44.1 | 3 | — | Safe R |
| IL-10 | DEM | Bradley Schneider | Republican candidate (IL-10) | D >99.9% | D+35.2 | D+23.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-02 | REP | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | R >99.9% | R+37.8 | R+40.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-03 | DEM | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | D >99.9% | D+36.5 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-04 | DEM | Jake Auchincloss | Republican candidate (MA-04) | D >99.9% | D+37.4 | D+22.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-06 | DEM | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | D >99.9% | D+36.1 | D+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-02 | DEM | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | D >99.9% | D+36.8 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-04 | REP | Jeffrey Hulum | Mike Ezell | R >99.9% | R+37.9 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-12 | DEM | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | D >99.9% | D+38.9 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-04 | REP | Tamara Wilson | Jim Jordan | R >99.9% | R+34.8 | R+42.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-13 | REP | Elizabeth Farnham | John Joyce | R >99.9% | R+37.3 | R+45.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-03 | REP | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | R >99.9% | R+37.1 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-07 | DEM | Elizabeth Fletcher | Alexander Hale | D >99.9% | D+39.0 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VT-01 | DEM | Rebecca Balint | Gerald Malloy | D >99.9% | D+29.0 | D+34.1 | 4 | — | Safe D |
| WA-02 | DEM | Rick Larsen | Edwin H. Feller | D >99.9% | D+34.0 | D+24.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MT-SEN | REP | Alani Bankhead+ Seth Bodnar (I) | Kurt Alme | R >99.9% | R+22.2 | R+19.3 | 14 | — | Safe RIND 1% |
| AL-03 | REP | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | R >99.9% | R+42.0 | R+45.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-01 | REP | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | R >99.9% | R+40.2 | R+45.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-28 | DEM | Judy Chu | April Verlato | D >99.9% | D+40.9 | D+28.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-32 | DEM | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | D >99.9% | D+41.7 | D+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-52 | DEM | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | D >99.9% | D+36.6 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-04 | DEM | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | D >99.9% | D+39.9 | D+26.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| HI-01 | DEM | Ed Case | Maxwell Frazier | D >99.9% | D+38.9 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| HI-02 | DEM | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | D >99.9% | D+38.9 | D+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-09 | DEM | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | D >99.9% | D+47.4 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-01 | REP | Drew Williams | James Comer | R >99.9% | R+42.5 | R+46.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-02 | DEM | Jim McGovern | Republican candidate (MA-02) | D >99.9% | D+40.3 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-05 | DEM | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | D >99.9% | D+43.0 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ME-01 | DEM | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | D >99.9% | D+28.9 | D+22.9 | 1 | — | Safe DRCV |
| OK-03 | REP | Jules Roberson | Frank Lucas | R >99.9% | R+38.4 | R+44.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-05 | DEM | Mary Scanlon | Melvin Johnakin | D >99.9% | D+41.5 | D+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| RI-01 | DEM | Gabriel Amo | Republican candidate (RI-01) | D >99.9% | D+38.5 | D+24.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-01 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-01) | Nathaniel Moran | R >99.9% | R+45.1 | R+48.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-13 | REP | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | R >99.9% | R+37.2 | R+45.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-16 | DEM | Veronica Escobar | Republican candidate (TX-16) | D >99.9% | D+38.5 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-19 | REP | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | R >99.9% | R+45.0 | R+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WA-01 | DEM | Suzan DelBene | Mary Silva | D >99.9% | D+39.7 | D+30.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-01 | REP | Vince George | Carol Miller | R >99.9% | R+38.6 | R+44.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-SEN | DEM | Ed Markey | John Deaton | D >99.9% | D+29.3 | D+28.3 | 8 | — | Safe D |
| AK-01 | REP | (No Democrat)+ Bill Hill (I) | Nick Begich III | R >99.9% | R+8.4 | R+12.7 | 6 | 0.1% | Safe RIND on ballot |
| AL-04 | REP | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | R >99.9% | R+59.7 | R+65.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-03 | DEM | Yassamin Ansari | Kirt Burgess | D >99.9% | D+62.5 | D+43.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AZ-07 | DEM | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | D >99.9% | D+42.0 | D+25.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-04 | DEM | Mike Thompson | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+29.3 | D+16.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-07 | DEM | Doris Matsui | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+28.0 | D+15.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-08 | DEM | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D >99.9% | D+51.6 | D+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-10 | DEM | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | D >99.9% | D+45.9 | D+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-11 | DEM | Scott Wiener | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+82.5 | D+72.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-12 | DEM | Lateefah Simon | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+89.7 | D+79.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-14 | DEM | Aisha Wahab | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+54.4 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-15 | DEM | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | D >99.9% | D+68.4 | D+52.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-16 | DEM | Sam Liccardo | Peter Sundin Soulé | D >99.9% | D+60.2 | D+51.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-17 | DEM | Rohit Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | D >99.9% | D+58.4 | D+43.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-18 | DEM | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | D >99.9% | D+49.1 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-19 | DEM | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Verbica | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+37.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-29 | DEM | Luz Rivas | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+56.6 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-30 | DEM | Laura Friedman | Scott Alan Meyers | D >99.9% | D+52.2 | D+42.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-34 | DEM | Jimmy Gomez | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+76.5 | D+56.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-36 | DEM | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | D >99.9% | D+52.1 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-37 | DEM | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | (no Republican — top-two) | D >99.9% | D+86.9 | D+65.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-40 | REP | (no Democrat — top-two) | Ken Calvert | R >99.9% | R+6.7 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.3% | Safe Rsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-43 | DEM | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | D >99.9% | D+73.5 | D+54.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-44 | DEM | Nanette Barragan | Genevieve Angel | D >99.9% | D+58.2 | D+41.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-01 | DEM | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | D >99.9% | D+68.4 | D+59.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CO-02 | DEM | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | D >99.9% | D+48.7 | D+41.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-10 | DEM | Maxwell Frost | Stuart Farber | D >99.9% | D+43.1 | D+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-20 | DEM | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | D >99.9% | D+59.0 | D+40.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-24 | DEM | Oliver Gilbert | Te Brown | D >99.9% | D+61.5 | D+43.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-04 | DEM | Henry Johnson | Jim Duffie | D >99.9% | D+69.5 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-05 | DEM | Nikema Williams | Republican candidate (GA-05) | D >99.9% | D+78.1 | D+73.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-06 | DEM | Lucia McBath | Kevin Martin | D >99.9% | D+57.7 | D+50.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-13 | DEM | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | D >99.9% | D+48.4 | D+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-01 | DEM | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | D >99.9% | D+51.6 | D+35.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-02 | DEM | Donna Miller | Calvin Coleman | D >99.9% | D+47.1 | D+35.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-03 | DEM | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | D >99.9% | D+52.0 | D+34.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-05 | DEM | Mike Quigley | Tom Hanson | D >99.9% | D+48.7 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-07 | DEM | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | D >99.9% | D+83.5 | D+68.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-07 | DEM | Andre Carson | Felipe Rios | D >99.9% | D+50.6 | D+42.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-05 | REP | Ned Pillersdorf | Harold Rogers | R >99.9% | R+57.7 | R+63.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-02 | DEM | Troy Carter | Republican candidate (LA-02) | D >99.9% | D+62.4 | D+50.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-05 | DEM | Katherine Clark | Republican candidate (MA-05) | D >99.9% | D+61.0 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-07 | DEM | Ayanna Pressley | Republican candidate (MA-07) | D >99.9% | D+86.2 | D+67.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-08 | DEM | Stephen Lynch | Gavin Solomon | D >99.9% | D+45.2 | D+29.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-04 | DEM | Glenn Ivey | Republican candidate (MD-04) | D >99.9% | D+91.7 | D+77.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-07 | DEM | Kweisi Mfume | Republican candidate (MD-07) | D >99.9% | D+73.7 | D+61.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-08 | DEM | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | D >99.9% | D+73.0 | D+59.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-12 | DEM | Rashida Tlaib | James D. Hooper | D >99.9% | D+60.8 | D+42.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-13 | DEM | Donavan McKinney | T.P. Nykoriak | D >99.9% | D+58.2 | D+44.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-04 | DEM | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | D >99.9% | D+46.1 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-05 | DEM | Ilhan Omar+ DeVelle L. Jackson (I) | John Nagel | D >99.9% | D+68.0 | D+64.1 | 0 | — | Safe DIND on ballot |
| MO-01 | DEM | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | D >99.9% | D+64.0 | D+59.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MO-08 | REP | Christopher Reichard | Jason Smith | R >99.9% | R+45.1 | R+53.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NC-02 | DEM | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | D >99.9% | D+43.5 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-04 | DEM | Valerie Foushee | Mahesh Ganorkar | D >99.9% | D+53.2 | D+46.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-12 | DEM | Alma Adams | John Codiga | D >99.9% | D+57.2 | D+48.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NE-03 | REP | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | R >99.9% | R+44.7 | R+53.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NJ-08 | DEM | Rob Menendez | Republican candidate (NJ-08) | D >99.9% | D+50.9 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NJ-10 | DEM | Lamonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | D >99.9% | D+73.0 | D+52.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-05 | DEM | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | D >99.9% | D+68.1 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-07 | DEM | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+67.3 | D+51.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-08 | DEM | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | D >99.9% | D+67.8 | D+47.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-09 | DEM | Yvette Clarke | Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D >99.9% | D+63.4 | D+44.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-10 | DEM | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | D >99.9% | D+82.1 | D+64.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-12 | DEM | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | D >99.9% | D+79.8 | D+67.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-13 | DEM | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Republican candidate (NY-13) | D >99.9% | D+84.1 | D+65.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-14 | DEM | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | D >99.9% | D+56.4 | D+38.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-15 | DEM | Ritchie Torres | Republican candidate (NY-15) | D >99.9% | D+76.0 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-16 | DEM | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | D >99.9% | D+54.1 | D+36.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-03 | DEM | Joyce Beatty | Republican candidate (OH-03) | D >99.9% | D+52.1 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OH-11 | DEM | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | D >99.9% | D+64.0 | D+56.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-02 | REP | Erik Terwey | Josh Brecheen | R >99.9% | R+47.7 | R+55.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-01 | DEM | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | D >99.9% | D+46.6 | D+39.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-03 | DEM | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | D >99.9% | D+54.1 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-02 | DEM | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | D >99.9% | D+53.3 | D+38.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-03 | DEM | Chris Rabb | Alexander Schnell | D >99.9% | D+84.4 | D+79.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| SC-06 | DEM | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | D >99.9% | D+43.6 | D+25.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-01 | REP | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | R >99.9% | R+47.8 | R+57.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-18 | DEM | Christian Menefee | Republican candidate (TX-18) | D >99.9% | D+77.5 | D+58.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-20 | DEM | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Baez | D >99.9% | D+49.9 | D+32.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-29 | DEM | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | D >99.9% | D+52.8 | D+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-30 | DEM | Frederick Haynes | Sholdon Daniels | D >99.9% | D+66.5 | D+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-33 | DEM | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | D >99.9% | D+53.2 | D+36.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-37 | DEM | Greg Casar | Lauren Pena | D >99.9% | D+72.6 | D+59.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| UT-01 | DEM | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | D >99.9% | D+37.6 | D+25.0 | 2 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-03 | DEM | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | D >99.9% | D+49.1 | D+36.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-04 | DEM | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | D >99.9% | D+46.3 | D+34.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-08 | DEM | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | D >99.9% | D+66.7 | D+52.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-11 | DEM | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | D >99.9% | D+50.8 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-07 | DEM | Pramila Jayapal | Nirav Sheth | D >99.9% | D+80.2 | D+77.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-09 | DEM | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | D >99.9% | D+53.4 | D+43.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-02 | DEM | Mark Pocan | (no Republican filed) | D >99.9% | D+50.8 | D+41.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-04 | DEM | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | D >99.9% | D+60.0 | D+53.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Todd Achilles (I) | Jim Risch | R >99.9% | R+22.7 | R+35.8 | 1 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
| NE-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Dan Osborn (I) | Pete Ricketts | R >99.9% | R+12.7 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
| RI-SEN | DEM | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | D >99.9% | D+30.4 | D+16.3 | 6 | — | Safe D |
| SD-SEN | REP | (No Democrat)+ Brian Bengs (I) | Mike Rounds | R >99.9% | R+19.3 | R+28.9 | 2 | — | Safe RIND on ballot |
Analysis
written piecesVermont and Oregon governor averages shift as the poll count jumps
Vermont's governor race went from a Democratic lead of 8.4 points to a Republican lead of 3.0, and Oregon's tightened to 2.4. Both averages now hold more polls than a day ago. The Senate edged down to 63% for Democrats.
Six forecasts, one Senate, and a range from 38% to 77%
The published chances of a change in Senate control run from below even to three in four. Most of that gap is not about the polls. It comes from where the chamber sits relative to the line, and from a handful of modelling choices nobody has settled.