Chamber control
U.S. House
76%
chance Democrats win control
Expected 228 D · 207 R · 218 for control
Democrats 209–250 · Republicans 185–226 (80% range)
Democrats 209–250 · Republicans 185–226 (80% range)
U.S. Senate
57%
chance Republicans win control
Expected 50 D · 50 R · 51 for control
Democrats 46–53 · Republicans 47–54 (80% range)
Democrats 46–53 · Republicans 47–54 (80% range)
Governorships
19D/17R
expected split of the 36 seats on the ballot
Democrats 14–24 · Republicans 12–22 (80% range)
The model puts the national House vote at D+5.3, with an 80% range of D+0.6 to D+10.9. Votes and seats can diverge: a party can win more votes nationally and still lose the chamber. Here Democrats lead the national vote in 92% of 200,000 simulations, while Democrats win the House in 76% — a 16-point gap created by the district map, not by any thumb on the scale.
Distribution of outcomes
200,000 simulationsHouse seatsmedian 228D/207R · 80% 209–250D
Under 218 · Republican control · 24%218+ · Democratic control · 76%
Senate seatsmedian 50D/50R · 80% 46–53D
Under 51 · Republican control · 57%51+ · Democratic control · 43%
The national environment
Generic congressional ballotnow D+3.6
Two-party margin, adjusted for house effects, likely-voter population and partisan sponsorship, then corrected for the question’s measured historical gap against the actual national vote. Plotted so that above the line favours Democrats and below favours Republicans. This is the single most important input to a midterm forecast.
Presidential approvalnow −15.8
Approve minus disapprove. Together with the economy this sets the fundamentals prior, which carries the forecast where polling is thin and never fully drops out.
Forecast over time
The probability history builds up one point per run — it will chart itself once the model has a few days behind it.
Where the majority turns
Tipping-point races
How often each district is the seat that delivers the 218th — a better measure of which races matter than closeness alone.
Closest races
Nearest a coin flip across all three chambers.
Every race
506 contests506 races
| Democrat | Republican | Rating | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-34 | DEM | Vicente Gonzalez | Eric Flores | R 50% | Even | R+6.6 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| NC-11 | REP | Jamie Ager | Jennifer Balkcom | D 50% | D+0.1 | R+9.7 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| IA-01 | REP | Christina Bohannan | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | R 51% | R+0.3 | R+6.8 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| MI-10 | REP | Christina Hines | Michael Bouchard Jr. | D 52% | D+0.5 | R+4.9 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt D |
| NC-01 | DEM | Don Davis | Laurie Buckhout | R 52% | R+0.5 | R+10.2 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| PA-07 | REP | Bob Brooks | Ryan Mackenzie | R 52% | R+0.5 | R+1.9 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt R |
| OH-07 | REP | Brian Poindexter | Max Miller | D 52% | D+0.4 | R+10.4 | 3 | 1.5% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| FL-22 | REP | Pia Dandiya | Casey Askar | D 53% | D+0.6 | R+6.9 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| MI-07 | REP | William Lawrence | Tom Barrett | R 53% | R+0.6 | R+0.4 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt R |
| NY-17 | REP | Cait Conley | Mike Lawler | R 53% | R+0.7 | D+3.3 | 2 | 1.5% | Tilt R |
| WA-03 | DEM | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | John Braun | R 53% | R+0.8 | R+3.3 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| FL-25 | DEM | Jared Moskowitz | Scott Singer | D 54% | D+1.0 | R+5.3 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| NJ-07 | REP | Rebecca Bennett | Tom Kean Jr. | D 54% | D+0.9 | R+0.2 | 1 | 1.4% | Tilt D |
| VA-02 | REP | Elaine Luria | Jen Kiggans | D 55% | D+1.1 | D+0.7 | 1 | 1.6% | Tilt D |
| GA-GOV | REP | Keisha Lance Bottoms | Rick Jackson | D 55% | D+1.0 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| MI-04 | REP | Sean McCann | Bill Huizenga | R 56% | R+1.5 | R+4.9 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| FL-14 | DEM | Kathy Castor | Mike Beltran | D 56% | D+1.5 | R+8.3 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| PA-10 | REP | Janelle Stelson | Scott Perry | R 56% | R+1.1 | R+4.7 | 3 | 1.5% | Tilt R |
| AZ-06 | REP | JoAnna Mendoza | Juan Ciscomani | D 56% | D+1.2 | R+0.2 | 3 | 1.8% | Tilt D |
| AZ-01 | REP | Amish Shah | Jay Feely | D 56% | D+1.8 | R+1.6 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt D |
| OH-09 | DEM | Marcy Kaptur | Derek Merrin | D 57% | D+1.8 | R+9.4 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| OH-GOV | REP | Amy Acton | Vivek Ramaswamy | R 58% | R+1.6 | R+10.2 | 8 | — | Tilt R |
| PA-01 | REP | Robert Harvie | Brian Fitzpatrick | D 58% | D+2.2 | D+1.8 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| AK-SEN | REP | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | R 59% | R+1.6 | R+12.7 | 8 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| TX-28 | DEM | Henry Cuellar | Tano Tijerina | D 59% | D+2.3 | R+5.1 | 0 | 1.1% | Tilt Dredrawn |
| WI-01 | REP | Mitchell Berman | Bryan Steil | R 59% | R+2.5 | R+3.6 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt R |
| OH-10 | REP | Kristina Knickerbocker | Mike Turner | R 59% | R+2.5 | R+7.0 | 0 | 1.0% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| CO-08 | REP | Manny Rutinel | Gabe Evans | D 60% | D+2.5 | D+0.1 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| IA-03 | REP | Sarah Trone Garriott | Zach Nunn | D 60% | D+2.6 | R+3.1 | 0 | 1.2% | Tilt D |
| NV-GOV | REP | Aaron Ford | Joe Lombardo | R 61% | R+2.9 | R+1.4 | 4 | — | Tilt R |
| IA-GOV | REP | Rob Sand | Zach Lahn | D 61% | D+2.3 | R+11.8 | 7 | — | Tilt D |
| IA-02 | REP | Lindsay James | Joe Mitchell | R 61% | R+2.6 | R+8.4 | 1 | 1.1% | Tilt R |
| AK-GOV | REP | Tom Begich | Bernadette Wilson | R 61% | R+2.3 | R+12.7 | 3 | — | Tilt RRCV |
| TX-SEN | REP | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | R 62% | R+2.5 | R+11.5 | 16 | — | Tilt R |
| WI-03 | REP | Rebecca Cooke | Derrick Van Orden | R 62% | R+2.3 | R+6.5 | 2 | 1.3% | Tilt R |
| SC-01 | REP | Nancy Lacore | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | R 62% | R+3.6 | R+11.8 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| VA-01 | REP | Shannon Taylor | Rob Wittman | R 63% | R+3.7 | R+5.1 | 1 | 0.9% | Tilt R |
| FL-07 | REP | Bale Dalton | Ryan Elijah | R 63% | R+3.7 | R+10.5 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| OH-SEN | REP | Sherrod Brown | Jon Husted | D 63% | D+2.7 | R+10.2 | 8 | — | Tilt D |
| TX-35 | REP | Johnny Garcia | Carlos De La Cruz | R 64% | R+4.0 | R+8.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Tilt Rredrawn |
| NH-GOV | REP | Cinde Warmington | Kelly Ayotte | R 66% | R+4.2 | D+4.3 | 4 | — | Lean R |
| PA-08 | DEM | Paige Cognetti | Rob Bresnahan | R 67% | R+3.6 | R+6.8 | 1 | 1.0% | Lean R |
| ME-02 | DEM | Matthew Dunlap | Paul LePage | R 67% | R+3.8 | R+8.5 | 3 | 1.0% | Lean RRCV |
| WI-GOV | DEM | David Crowley | Tom Tiffany | D 68% | D+3.7 | R+0.2 | 5 | — | Lean D |
| MI-SEN | DEM | Abdul El-Sayed | Mike Rogers | D 68% | D+3.8 | Even | 16 | — | Lean D |
| KS-GOV | DEM | Cindy Holscher | Ty Masterson | R 68% | R+5.5 | R+15.7 | 0 | — | Lean R |
| MT-01 | REP | Sam Forstag | Aaron Flint | R 69% | R+4.5 | R+10.4 | 1 | 0.9% | Lean R |
| CO-05 | REP | Jessica Killin | Jeff Crank | R 69% | R+5.2 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean R |
| OH-15 | REP | Don Leonard | Mike Carey | R 70% | R+5.0 | R+9.1 | 1 | 0.9% | Lean Rredrawn |
| TX-23 | REP | Katy Padilla Stout | Brandon Herrera | R 71% | R+5.8 | R+12.7 | 2 | 0.8% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MI-GOV | DEM | Jocelyn Benson | John James | D 71% | D+4.4 | Even | 7 | — | Lean D |
| VT-GOV | REP | Amanda Janoo | Phil Scott | R 71% | R+7.2 | D+34.1 | 2 | — | Lean R |
| IA-SEN | REP | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | R 72% | R+4.5 | R+11.8 | 8 | — | Lean R |
| FL-09 | DEM | Darren Soto | Dan Green | R 72% | R+6.2 | R+14.8 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean Rredrawn |
| MN-01 | REP | Jake Johnson | Brad Finstad | R 73% | R+6.5 | R+11.2 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean R |
| FL-GOV | REP | David Jolly | Byron Donalds | R 73% | R+6.0 | R+10.4 | 8 | — | Lean R |
| ME-SEN | REP | Troy Jackson | Susan Collins | D 74% | D+4.9 | D+8.0 | 3 | — | Lean D |
| NM-GOV | DEM | Deb Haaland | Gregg Hull | D 75% | D+7.7 | D+7.7 | 0 | — | Lean D |
| NH-SEN | DEM | Chris Pappas | John E. Sununu | D 75% | D+6.0 | D+4.3 | 8 | — | Lean D |
| MO-05 | DEM | Emanuel Cleaver | Rick Brattin | R 76% | R+7.5 | R+17.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CA-48 | DEM | Marni von Wilpert | Jim Desmond | D 76% | D+8.1 | D+4.8 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| MO-02 | REP | Fred Wellman | Ann Wagner | R 76% | R+7.5 | R+11.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| SC-GOV | REP | Jermaine Johnson | Alan Wilson | R 76% | R+8.9 | R+16.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| AL-02 | DEM | Shomari Figures | Rhett Marques | R 77% | R+7.8 | R+12.7 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CA-06 | IND | Richard Pan | Kevin Kiley | D 77% | D+11.4 | D+10.1 | 1 | 0.6% | Lean Dredrawn |
| NY-01 | REP | Christopher Gallant | Nick LaLota | R 77% | R+9.3 | R+7.8 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| OR-GOV | DEM | Tina Kotek | Christine Drazan | D 77% | D+8.6 | D+15.7 | 1 | — | Lean D |
| CA-22 | REP | Randy Villegas | David Valadao | D 78% | D+6.6 | D+3.3 | 1 | 1.3% | Lean Dredrawn |
| VA-05 | REP | Thomas Perriello | John McGuire | R 78% | R+8.3 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean R |
| NH-01 | DEM | Stefany Shaheen | Anthony DiLorenzo | D 79% | D+9.2 | D+3.4 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean D |
| NV-02 | REP | Teresa Benitez-Thompson | David Flippo | R 79% | R+9.3 | R+13.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| FL-04 | REP | LaShonda Holloway | Aaron Bean | R 79% | R+8.6 | R+10.3 | 0 | 0.6% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AZ-GOV | DEM | Katie Hobbs | Andy Biggs | D 79% | D+6.6 | R+3.8 | 8 | — | Lean D |
| SC-SEN | REP | Annie Andrews | Generic Republican | R 79% | R+9.4 | R+16.2 | 0 | — | Lean R |
| NC-09 | REP | Richard Ojeda | Richard Hudson | R 79% | R+8.8 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| CO-GOV | DEM | Phil Weiser | Victor Marx | D 80% | D+9.6 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Lean D |
| TX-GOV | REP | Gina Hinojosa | Greg Abbott | R 80% | R+6.4 | R+11.5 | 14 | — | Lean R |
| NE-GOV | REP | Lynne Walz | Jim Pillen | R 80% | R+13.0 | R+20.2 | 1 | — | Lean R |
| OH-01 | DEM | Greg Landsman | Eric Conroy | D 80% | D+9.1 | R+1.6 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean Dredrawn |
| FL-16 | REP | Kelly Kirschner | Sydney Gruters | R 80% | R+9.9 | R+11.4 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| AZ-05 | REP | Christopher James | Daniel Keenan | R 81% | R+10.4 | R+19.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| TX-15 | REP | Bobby Pulido | Monica De La Cruz | R 82% | R+7.1 | R+13.8 | 2 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| KY-06 | REP | Zach Dembo | Ralph Alvarado | R 82% | R+10.6 | R+13.9 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| CO-03 | REP | Dwayne Romero | Jeffrey Hurd | R 82% | R+9.8 | R+9.3 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| WA-05 | REP | Carmela Conroy | Michael Baumgartner | R 82% | R+9.9 | R+10.6 | 0 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NC-SEN | REP | Roy Cooper | Michael Whatley | D 83% | D+7.7 | R+2.5 | 11 | — | Lean D |
| NE-01 | REP | Christopher Backemeyer | Mike Flood | R 83% | R+8.5 | R+12.4 | 2 | 0.5% | Lean R |
| NY-03 | DEM | Tom Suozzi | Mike LiPetri | D 83% | D+10.1 | R+0.1 | 0 | 0.9% | Lean D |
| NM-02 | DEM | Gabriel Vasquez | Greg Cunningham | D 83% | D+10.3 | D+0.5 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean D |
| NV-01 | DEM | Dina Titus | Carrie Buck | D 83% | D+10.4 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.8% | Lean D |
| FL-11 | REP | James Pericola | Joe Strada | R 84% | R+11.4 | R+14.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NE-02 | REP | Denise Powell | Brinker Harding | D 84% | D+11.5 | D+5.5 | 0 | 0.7% | Lean D |
| MN-SEN | DEM | Peggy Flanagan | Michele Tafoya | D 84% | D+9.1 | D+5.4 | 2 | — | Lean D |
| NC-13 | REP | Paul Barringer | Brad Knott | R 84% | R+10.8 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Lean Rredrawn |
| FL-27 | REP | Eliott Rodriguez | Maria Salazar | R 84% | R+9.3 | R+10.8 | 1 | 0.5% | Lean Rredrawn |
| NC-07 | REP | Kimberly Hardy | David Rouzer | R 85% | R+11.2 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| ME-GOV | DEM | Hannah Pingree | Robert Charles | D 85% | D+8.4 | D+8.0 | 3 | — | Likely D |
| FL-13 | REP | Leela Gray | Anna Paulina Luna | R 86% | R+9.3 | R+11.7 | 1 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MN-02 | DEM | Matt Little | Eric Pratt | D 86% | D+12.6 | D+6.6 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| CO-04 | REP | Eileen Laubacher | Lauren Boebert | R 86% | R+11.6 | R+18.5 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely R |
| NC-03 | REP | Raymond Smith | Greg Murphy | R 86% | R+11.6 | R+12.1 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MI-08 | DEM | Kristen McDonald Rivet | Thomas J. Smith | D 86% | D+11.7 | R+0.7 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| GA-01 | REP | Amanda Hollowell | James Kingston | R 86% | R+12.8 | R+15.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely R |
| FL-08 | REP | Jennifer Jenkins | Mike Haridopolos | R 87% | R+11.9 | R+14.7 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-09 | REP | Justin Pearson | Brent Taylor | R 87% | R+13.1 | R+18.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-08 | REP | Vanessa Enoch | Warren Davidson | R 87% | R+12.2 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NV-03 | DEM | Susie Lee | Marty O'Donnell | D 87% | D+12.3 | D+1.5 | 0 | 0.7% | Likely D |
| MN-08 | REP | Trina Swanson | Peter Stauber | R 87% | R+12.3 | R+13.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| NY-02 | REP | Patrick Halpin | Andrew Garbarino | R 87% | R+12.4 | R+10.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| FL-02 | REP | Amanda Green | Austin Rogers | R 88% | R+13.7 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-SEN | REP | Angie Nixon | Ashley Moody | R 88% | R+8.8 | R+10.4 | 4 | — | Likely R |
| NJ-02 | REP | Zack Mullock | Jeff Van Drew | R 88% | R+12.8 | R+10.9 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| LA-SEN | REP | Jamie Davis | Julia Letlow | R 88% | R+14.1 | R+21.2 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| NH-02 | DEM | Maggie Goodlander | Lily Williams | D 88% | D+14.5 | D+5.3 | 1 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| NY-GOV | DEM | Kathy Hochul | Bruce Blakeman | D 89% | D+11.8 | D+15.7 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| RI-GOV | DEM | Helena Foulkes | Elaine Pelino | D 89% | D+14.2 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| GA-SEN | DEM | Jon Ossoff | Mike Collins | D 89% | D+9.3 | R+1.3 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| TX-02 | REP | Shaun Finnie | Steve Toth | R 89% | R+14.5 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-01 | REP | John Croisant | Jackson Lahmeyer | R 89% | R+14.7 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| KS-SEN | REP | Adam Hamilton | Roger Marshall | R 89% | R+10.2 | R+15.7 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| AR-02 | REP | Chris Jones | French Hill | R 89% | R+13.4 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| TX-32 | REP | Dan Barrios | Jace Yarbrough | R 89% | R+14.7 | R+15.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-13 | DEM | Adam Gray | Kevin Lincoln | D 89% | D+13.5 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely Dredrawn |
| NY-19 | DEM | Josh Riley | Peter Oberacker | D 89% | D+13.6 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| NC-06 | REP | Cyril Jefferson | Addison McDowell | R 90% | R+13.6 | R+16.8 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IN-05 | REP | James Ford | Victoria Spartz | R 90% | R+13.6 | R+16.6 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| NV-04 | DEM | Steven Horsford | Cody Whipple | D 90% | D+13.6 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.6% | Likely D |
| NC-05 | REP | Chuck Hubbard | Virginia Foxx | R 90% | R+13.7 | R+17.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TN-05 | REP | Chaz Molder | Charlie Hatcher | R 90% | R+15.4 | R+20.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-02 | REP | Jonathan Nez | Eli Crane | R 90% | R+14.2 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| FL-12 | REP | Kimberly Overman | Gus Bilirakis | R 90% | R+14.2 | R+12.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OK-05 | REP | Jena Nelson | Stephanie Bice | R 91% | R+14.2 | R+18.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely R |
| TX-24 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-24) | Elizabeth Van Duyne | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-14 | REP | Lakesha Womack | Tim Moore | R 91% | R+14.3 | R+15.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-08 | REP | Bernadette Greene Placentia | Abraham Hamadeh | R 91% | R+14.7 | R+15.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NY-21 | REP | Blake Gendebien | Anthony Constantino | R 91% | R+11.4 | R+19.2 | 2 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| SC-02 | REP | Zyon Khalifa | Joe Wilson | R 91% | R+14.7 | R+13.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| OK-GOV | REP | Cyndi Munson | Gentner Drummond | R 91% | R+16.1 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| WI-08 | REP | Rick Crosson | Tony Wied | R 91% | R+14.9 | R+15.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| GA-12 | REP | Ceretta Smith | Rick Allen | R 91% | R+15.0 | R+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NJ-09 | DEM | Nelida Pou | Rosemary Pino | D 91% | D+15.0 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| CA-45 | DEM | Derek Tran | Chuong Vo | D 91% | D+14.9 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely Dredrawn |
| WI-06 | REP | Democratic candidate (WI-06) | Glenn Grothman | R 92% | R+15.0 | R+16.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| WA-04 | REP | John Duresky | Amanda McKinney | R 92% | R+16.5 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| WI-07 | REP | Fred Clark | Michael Alfonso | R 92% | R+16.5 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| VA-07 | DEM | Eugene Vindman | Doug Ollivant | D 92% | D+15.3 | D+4.2 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| NC-10 | REP | Ashley Bell | Pat Harrigan | R 92% | R+15.3 | R+17.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MD-01 | REP | Daniel Schwartz | Andy Harris | R 92% | R+15.4 | R+16.4 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| MN-GOV | DEM | Amy Klobuchar | Lisa Demuth | D 92% | D+13.3 | D+5.4 | 4 | — | Likely D |
| MI-01 | REP | Callie Barr | Jack Bergman | R 92% | R+15.6 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NJ-05 | DEM | Josh Gottheimer | Sean Kirrane | D 92% | D+15.7 | D+4.4 | 0 | 0.5% | Likely D |
| KS-02 | REP | Don Coover | Derek Schmidt | R 92% | R+15.7 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| IN-01 | DEM | Frank Mrvan | Barb Regnitz | D 93% | D+15.8 | D+2.8 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| FL-21 | REP | James Martin | Brian Mast | R 93% | R+15.9 | R+14.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CT-05 | DEM | Jahana Hayes | Chris Shea | D 93% | D+15.8 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| GA-10 | REP | Pamela DeLancy | Houston Gaines | R 93% | R+17.5 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NM-03 | DEM | Teresa Leger Fernandez | Martin Zamora | D 93% | D+16.1 | D+7.1 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| AL-GOV | REP | Doug Jones | Tommy Tuberville | R 93% | R+13.3 | R+29.3 | 2 | — | Likely R |
| WA-08 | DEM | Kim Schrier | Spencer Meline | D 93% | D+16.1 | D+6.5 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| PA-17 | DEM | Chris Deluzio | Jesse Vodvarka | D 93% | D+16.1 | D+6.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| OH-13 | DEM | Emilia Sykes | Carey Coleman | D 93% | D+16.1 | D+4.3 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TX-22 | REP | Marquette Greene-Scott | Trever Nehls | R 93% | R+17.9 | R+21.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-38 | REP | Melissa McDonough | Jon Bonck | R 93% | R+18.0 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-25 | DEM | Raul Ruiz | Joe Males | D 93% | D+16.6 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TX-21 | REP | Kristin Hook | Mark Teixeira | R 94% | R+18.1 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-26 | REP | Nicole Locklin | Mario Diaz-Balart | R 94% | R+16.7 | R+13.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-18 | DEM | Pat Ryan | Jackie Auringer | D 94% | D+16.8 | D+5.2 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| TN-GOV | REP | Jerri Green | Marsha Blackburn | R 94% | R+19.9 | R+28.2 | 2 | — | Likely R |
| PA-GOV | DEM | Josh Shapiro | Stacy Garrity | D 94% | D+16.2 | R+0.7 | 8 | — | Likely D |
| TX-09 | REP | Leticia Gutierrez | Alexandra Mealer | R 94% | R+18.3 | R+16.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| FL-18 | REP | Curtis Gibson | Scott Franklin | R 94% | R+16.8 | R+15.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Rredrawn |
| AZ-04 | DEM | Greg Stanton | Zuhdi Jasser | D 94% | D+16.8 | D+8.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| KS-03 | DEM | Sharice Davids | Eric Jenkins | D 94% | D+16.9 | D+4.6 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| PA-11 | REP | Nancy Mannion | Lloyd Smucker | R 94% | R+16.8 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| NY-04 | REP | Laura Gillen | Jeanine Driscoll | D 94% | D+16.9 | D+5.0 | 0 | 0.4% | Likely D |
| GA-11 | REP | Chris Harden | John Cowan | R 94% | R+18.4 | R+22.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| AL-SEN | REP | Everett Wess | Barry Moore | R 94% | R+23.6 | R+29.3 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| IL-08 | DEM | Melissa Bean | Jennifer Davis | D 94% | D+18.4 | D+9.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| TX-10 | REP | Caitlin Rourk | Chris Gober | R 94% | R+18.6 | R+20.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-04 | DEM | Patty Garcia | Lupe Castillo | D 94% | D+26.4 | D+33.7 | 1 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| MO-03 | REP | Bethany Mann | Bob Onder | R 94% | R+17.2 | R+19.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| SC-05 | REP | Mallory Dittmer | Wes Climer | R 94% | R+18.9 | R+21.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| VA-06 | REP | Beth Macy | Ben Cline | R 94% | R+17.4 | R+23.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely R |
| CA-01 | DEM | Mike McGuire | James Gallagher | D 94% | D+17.3 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Dredrawn |
| FL-05 | REP | Rachel Grage | John Rutherford | R 94% | R+17.5 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OH-14 | REP | Maria Jukic | David Joyce | R 94% | R+17.5 | R+19.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NC-08 | REP | Colby Watson | Mark Harris | R 95% | R+17.9 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-17 | DEM | Eric Sorensen | Dillan Vancil | D 95% | D+18.0 | D+5.9 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MS-SEN | REP | Scott Colom | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R 95% | R+15.4 | R+21.2 | 1 | — | Likely R |
| OR-05 | REP | Janelle Bynum | Patti Adair | D 95% | D+18.3 | D+9.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MD-06 | DEM | April Delaney | Robin Ficker | D 95% | D+18.3 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| MN-06 | REP | Doug Chapin | Tom Emmer | R 95% | R+18.3 | R+19.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| KS-04 | REP | Katy Tyndell | Ron Estes | R 95% | R+18.3 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MI-03 | DEM | Hillary Scholten | Terri DeBoer | D 95% | D+18.5 | D+8.5 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| IL-06 | DEM | Sean Casten | Niki Conforti | D 95% | D+18.4 | D+7.3 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| CT-02 | DEM | Joe Courtney | George Austin | D 95% | D+18.6 | D+9.2 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| TX-27 | REP | Tanya Lloyd | Michael Cloud | R 95% | R+18.7 | R+20.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-05 | REP | Michael Masuda | Tom McClintock | R 95% | R+18.8 | R+19.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-16 | REP | Paul Nolley | Darin LaHood | R 95% | R+18.9 | R+22.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| MO-04 | REP | Jordan Herrera | Mark Alford | R 96% | R+18.9 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| MO-06 | REP | Josh Smead | Chris Stigall | R 96% | R+20.9 | R+26.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-23 | REP | Aaron Gies | Nick Langworthy | R 96% | R+19.2 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| SD-01 | REP | Nicole Gronli | Marty Jackley | R 96% | R+21.0 | R+28.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| TN-07 | REP | Darden Copeland | Matt Van Epps | R 96% | R+19.3 | R+21.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NY-22 | DEM | John Mannion | Kailee Buller | D 96% | D+19.4 | D+9.0 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely D |
| CT-GOV | DEM | Ned Lamont | Ryan Fazio | D 96% | D+18.6 | D+16.5 | 2 | — | Likely D |
| TX-31 | REP | Justin Early | John Carter | R 96% | R+19.7 | R+20.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-21 | DEM | Jim Costa | Kyle Kirkland | D 96% | D+19.6 | D+10.4 | 0 | 0.3% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TN-08 | REP | Heidi Kuhn | David Kustoff | R 96% | R+19.7 | R+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| OR-04 | DEM | Valerie Hoyle | Monique Despain | D 96% | D+19.8 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| IL-14 | DEM | Lauren Underwood | James Marter | D 96% | D+19.9 | D+7.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| NJ-03 | DEM | Herb Conaway | Michael McGuire | D 96% | D+19.8 | D+9.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| IL-SEN | DEM | Juliana Stratton | Don Tracy | D 96% | D+21.7 | D+13.0 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| NM-SEN | DEM | Ben Ray Lujan | Larry Marker | D 96% | D+19.9 | D+7.7 | 0 | — | Likely D |
| SD-GOV | REP | Dan Ahlers | Larry Rhoden | R 96% | R+19.8 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Likely R |
| TX-03 | REP | Evan Hunt | Keith Self | R 96% | R+19.9 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| IL-GOV | DEM | JB Pritzker | Darren Bailey | D 96% | D+17.6 | D+13.0 | 1 | — | Likely D |
| FL-15 | REP | Robert People | Laurel Lee | R 96% | R+20.0 | R+17.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-23 | REP | Tessa Lynn Hodge | Jay Obernolte | R 96% | R+20.1 | R+17.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| NJ-11 | DEM | Analilia Mejia | Joe Hathaway | D 96% | D+20.0 | D+10.5 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| GA-02 | DEM | Sanford Bishop | Matt Day | D 96% | D+20.2 | D+8.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| RI-02 | DEM | Seth Magaziner | Victor Mellor | D 97% | D+20.3 | D+9.1 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely D |
| CA-03 | DEM | Amerish Bera | Robb Tucker | D 97% | D+20.4 | D+11.8 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| FL-03 | REP | Seth Harp | Kat Cammack | R 97% | R+20.5 | R+19.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| PA-16 | REP | Justin Wagner | George Kelly | R 97% | R+20.5 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely R |
| FL-17 | REP | Matthew Montavon | Greg Steube | R 97% | R+20.9 | R+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| CA-47 | DEM | Dave Min | Jenny Rae Le Roux | D 97% | D+20.9 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.2% | Likely Dredrawn |
| TX-05 | REP | Ruth Torres | Lance Gooden | R 97% | R+20.9 | R+20.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Likely Rredrawn |
| TX-25 | REP | Dione Sims | Roger Williams | R 97% | R+21.2 | R+21.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| AR-GOV | REP | Fredrick Love | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R 97% | R+21.2 | R+30.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WI-05 | REP | Andrew Beck | Scott Fitzgerald | R 97% | R+21.3 | R+22.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| NY-24 | REP | Alissa Ellman | Claudia Tenney | R 97% | R+21.4 | R+22.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| MA-SEN | DEM | Ed Markey | John Deaton | D 97% | D+22.6 | D+28.3 | 7 | — | Safe D |
| PA-06 | DEM | Chrissy Houlahan | Martin Young | D 97% | D+21.3 | D+12.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| TX-17 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-17) | Pete Sessions | R 97% | R+21.4 | R+20.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-06 | REP | Danny Minton | Jake Ellzey | R 97% | R+21.4 | R+22.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-05 | REP | Daniel Burket | Bob Latta | R 97% | R+21.5 | R+23.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-09 | DEM | Bill Keating | Robert MacAllister | D 97% | D+21.5 | D+13.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| CA-49 | DEM | Mike Levin | Armen Kurdian | D 97% | D+21.6 | D+13.6 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-07 | REP | Haiden Moburg | Rich McCormick | R 97% | R+21.8 | R+21.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| NJ-SEN | DEM | Cory Booker | Justin Murphy | D 97% | D+21.7 | D+8.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-11 | DEM | Jeremy Moss | Ethan Baker | D 97% | D+23.8 | D+17.7 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| OH-12 | REP | Jerrad Christian | Troy Balderson | R 97% | R+21.7 | R+29.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-14 | REP | Richard Davis | Randy Weber | R 97% | R+22.0 | R+23.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-SEN | DEM | Mark Warner | Bert Mizusawa | D 97% | D+18.9 | D+7.3 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| TN-06 | REP | Mike Croley | Johnny Garrett | R 97% | R+24.1 | R+25.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-06 | DEM | Frank Pallone | Hillary Herzig | D 97% | D+22.2 | D+10.0 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| FL-28 | REP | Phil Ehr | Carlos Gimenez | R 97% | R+22.2 | R+20.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-06 | DEM | Andrea Salinas | David Russ | D 98% | D+22.6 | D+12.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-26 | DEM | Jacqui Irwin | Samuel Gallucci | D 98% | D+24.8 | D+17.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-SEN | DEM | John Hickenlooper | Mark Baisley | D 98% | D+22.8 | D+12.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-05 | REP | Andrew Sneed | Dale Strong | R 98% | R+22.7 | R+28.7 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| DE-01 | DEM | Sarah McBride | Donyale Hall | D 98% | D+22.8 | D+16.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IL-13 | DEM | Nikki Budzinski | Jeff Wilson | D 98% | D+22.8 | D+11.2 | 0 | 0.2% | Safe D |
| AR-03 | REP | Robb Ryerse | Steve Womack | R 98% | R+23.0 | R+25.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe R |
| TN-04 | REP | Victoria Broderick | Scott Desjarlais | R 98% | R+23.1 | R+21.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| IL-11 | DEM | Bill Foster | Jeffrey Walter | D 98% | D+23.0 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NM-01 | DEM | Melanie Stansbury | Ndidiamaka Okpareke | D 98% | D+23.2 | D+13.8 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| TX-26 | REP | Steven Shook | Brandon Gill | R 98% | R+23.4 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| VA-10 | DEM | Suhas Subramanyam | Dave Beckwith | D 98% | D+23.2 | D+11.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| WY-GOV | REP | Kenneth Casner | Eric Barlow | R 98% | R+25.7 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-12 | REP | Heli Rodriguez-Prilliman | Craig Goldman | R 98% | R+23.5 | R+22.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-27 | DEM | George Whitesides | Jason Gibbs | D 98% | D+23.6 | D+12.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-SEN | REP | Charles Booker | Andy Barr | R 98% | R+25.9 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-04 | REP | Courtney McClain | William Timmons | R 98% | R+23.9 | R+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-06 | DEM | Democratic candidate (LA-06) | Peter Williams | R 98% | R+26.3 | R+32.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-35 | DEM | Norma Torres | Mike Cargile | D 98% | D+24.2 | D+12.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-SEN | REP | Jasmine Thomas | Kevin Hern | R 98% | R+26.4 | R+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-36 | REP | Rhonda Hart | Brian Babin | R 98% | R+24.1 | R+23.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CO-07 | DEM | Brittany Pettersen | Amanda Capobianco | D 98% | D+24.2 | D+15.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| IA-04 | REP | Dave Dawson | Chris McGowan | R 98% | R+27.4 | R+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-42 | DEM | Robert Garcia | Brian Burley | D 98% | D+24.8 | D+15.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-08 | REP | Keith Coleman | Jessica Steinmann | R 99% | R+27.5 | R+25.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-11 | REP | Michael DeCillis | Nicole Malliotakis | R 99% | R+25.2 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| RI-SEN | DEM | Jack Reed | Raymond McKay | D 99% | D+25.4 | D+16.3 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| CA-38 | DEM | Hilda Solis | Pedro Casas | D 99% | D+27.9 | D+17.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| MA-GOV | DEM | Maura Healey | Mike Minogue | D 99% | D+23.2 | D+28.3 | 5 | — | Safe D |
| HI-GOV | DEM | Josh Green | Gary Cordery | D 99% | D+25.5 | D+25.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-04 | REP | Jason Pearce | Pat Fallon | R 99% | R+25.7 | R+23.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OR-02 | REP | Chris Beck | Cliff Bentz | R 99% | R+26.1 | R+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OR-SEN | DEM | Jeff Merkley | David Brock Smith | D 99% | D+26.0 | D+15.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-02 | REP | Elinor Gilbreath | Mike Simpson | R 99% | R+26.0 | R+26.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-02 | REP | Jamee Decio | Rudy Yakym | R 99% | R+26.2 | R+25.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-09 | REP | James Graham | Erin Houchin | R 99% | R+26.1 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-07 | REP | John Vincent | Russell Fry | R 99% | R+25.9 | R+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-05 | REP | Christian Vukasovich | Timothy Walberg | R 99% | R+26.3 | R+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| GA-14 | REP | Shawn Harris | Clay Fuller | R 99% | R+26.5 | R+37.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| FL-19 | REP | Victor Arias | Jim Schwartzel | R 99% | R+29.1 | R+28.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-06 | DEM | Grace Meng | Juan Pagan | D 99% | D+26.5 | D+12.6 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| NY-20 | DEM | Paul Tonko | Ralph Ambrosio | D 99% | D+26.5 | D+16.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-31 | DEM | Gilbert Cisneros | Eric Ching | D 99% | D+26.6 | D+16.2 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| IN-04 | REP | Joseph MacKey | Jim Baird | R 99% | R+26.6 | R+29.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-GOV | DEM | Xavier Becerra | Steve Hilton | D 99% | D+19.6 | D+23.4 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| UT-01 | DEM | Ben McAdams | Riley Owen | D 99% | D+29.2 | D+25.0 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-39 | DEM | Mark Takano | Steve Manos | D 99% | D+26.7 | D+14.4 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| UT-02 | REP | Peter Crosby | Blake Moore | R 99% | R+26.6 | R+30.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-33 | DEM | Pete Aguilar | Stephanie Vargas | D 99% | D+26.9 | D+14.5 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| ID-GOV | REP | Terri Pickens | Brad Little | R 99% | R+26.9 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CT-03 | DEM | Rosa Delauro | Christopher Lancia | D 99% | D+27.1 | D+16.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| CA-50 | DEM | Scott Peters | Steve Cohen | D 99% | D+27.0 | D+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-03 | REP | Maura Keller | Brian Jack | R 99% | R+27.3 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-04 | DEM | Madeleine Dean | Aurora Stuski | D 99% | D+27.3 | D+17.1 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| WA-10 | DEM | Marilyn Strickland | Chris D. Chung | D 99% | D+28.0 | D+18.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| AR-SEN | REP | Hallie Shoffner | Tom Cotton | R 99% | R+21.3 | R+30.4 | 2 | — | Safe R |
| DE-SEN | DEM | Chris Coons | Michael Katz | D 99% | D+28.0 | D+16.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-03 | REP | Kelly Thompson | Marlin Stutzman | R 99% | R+28.3 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-09 | DEM | Josh Harder | John McBride | D 99% | D+28.2 | D+15.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| KY-04 | REP | Melissa Strange | Ed Gallrein | R 99% | R+30.8 | R+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WA-06 | DEM | Emily Randall | Teresa Fox | D 99% | D+28.1 | D+19.7 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| LA-05 | REP | Dan McKay | Blake Miguez | R 99% | R+30.9 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| PA-12 | DEM | Summer Lee | Leonard Fechter | D 99% | D+28.4 | D+19.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| AZ-09 | REP | Danielle Sterbinsky | Paul Gosar | R 99% | R+28.3 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-06 | DEM | Daniel Koh | John Field | D 99% | D+31.2 | D+23.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-02 | DEM | John Olszewski | David Wallace | D 99% | D+28.5 | D+19.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-03 | REP | Michael Chiaradio | Mike Guest | R 99% | R+28.1 | R+27.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-06 | REP | Cynthia Wirth | Jefferson Shreve | R 99% | R+28.5 | R+32.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MI-02 | REP | Benjamin Ambrose | John Moolenaar | R 99% | R+28.3 | R+29.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KS-01 | REP | Lauren Reinhold | Tracey Mann | R 99% | R+28.6 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| ME-01 | DEM | Chellie Pingree | Ronald Russell | D 99% | D+28.7 | D+22.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe DRCV |
| NY-25 | DEM | Joe Morelle | Virginia McIntyre | D 99% | D+28.9 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-06 | REP | Eric Yonce | Randy Fine | R 99% | R+28.9 | R+28.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-01 | DEM | Richard Neal | Republican candidate (MA-01) | D 99% | D+28.9 | D+16.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe D |
| MN-03 | DEM | Kelly Morrison | Tyler Bass | D 99% | D+29.0 | D+22.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-07 | DEM | Terri Sewell | Ammie Akin | D 99% | D+29.4 | D+19.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-51 | DEM | Sara Jacobs | Ricardo Cabrera | D 99% | D+29.2 | D+20.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dredrawn |
| CT-01 | DEM | Luke Bronin | Amy Chai | D 99% | D+32.3 | D+24.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MT-02 | REP | Brian Miller | Troy Downing | R 99% | R+29.8 | R+29.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| UT-04 | REP | Jonathan Larsen | Mike Kennedy | R 99% | R+29.6 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| FL-23 | DEM | Lois Frankel | Deborah Adeimy | D 99% | D+29.7 | D+17.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-08 | REP | James Cooper | Austin Scott | R 99% | R+29.9 | R+29.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-14 | REP | David Bradstock | Guy Reschenthaler | R 99% | R+30.3 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-03 | DEM | Morgan McGarvey | Maria Rodriguez | D 99% | D+30.0 | D+20.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-09 | REP | Nicholas Alex | Andrew Clyde | R 99% | R+30.6 | R+33.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IN-08 | REP | Mary Allen | Mark Messmer | R 99% | R+30.4 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-04 | REP | Mitchell Jacob | Tom Cole | R 99% | R+30.6 | R+32.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AL-01 | REP | Clyde Jones | Jerry Carl | R 99% | R+34.0 | R+34.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-41 | DEM | Linda Sanchez | Mitch Clemmons | D 99% | D+30.7 | D+17.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-09 | REP | Rachel Wallace | Dan Meuser | R 99% | R+30.8 | R+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TN-02 | REP | Michaela Barnett | Tim Burchett | R 99.5% | R+31.1 | R+32.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AL-06 | REP | Keith Pilkington | Gary Palmer | R 99.5% | R+31.4 | R+34.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| ND-01 | REP | Trygve Hammer | Julie Fedorchak | R 99.5% | R+31.3 | R+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CO-06 | DEM | Jason Crow | Khaleb Dammen | D 99.6% | D+31.6 | D+21.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-09 | REP | Ray Pooley | Lisa McClain | R 99.6% | R+31.5 | R+31.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MD-GOV | DEM | Wes Moore | Dan Cox | D 99.6% | D+27.4 | D+31.0 | 1 | — | Safe D |
| CA-46 | DEM | Lou Correa | David Pan | D 99.6% | D+32.0 | D+20.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-01 | DEM | Donald Norcross | Damon Galdo | D 99.6% | D+31.9 | D+20.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-03 | DEM | Sarah Elfreth | Penny Kennedy | D 99.6% | D+32.3 | D+25.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-07 | REP | Erik Osberg | Michelle Fischbach | R 99.6% | R+32.2 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-11 | REP | Claire Reynolds | August Pfluger | R 99.6% | R+32.1 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TN-SEN | REP | Marquita Bradshaw | Bill Hagerty | R 99.6% | R+32.3 | R+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WA-02 | DEM | Rick Larsen | Edwin H. Feller | D 99.6% | D+32.3 | D+24.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WY-01 | REP | Lisa Kinney | Chuck Gray | R 99.6% | R+35.4 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-04 | REP | Matthew Gromlich | Mike Johnson | R 99.6% | R+32.9 | R+33.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NJ-04 | REP | Rachel Peace | Chris Smith | R 99.7% | R+33.3 | R+28.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-15 | REP | Raymond Bilger | Glenn Thompson | R 99.7% | R+33.1 | R+37.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OH-06 | REP | Malcolm Ritchie | Michael Rulli | R 99.7% | R+32.9 | R+33.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NY-26 | DEM | Timothy Kennedy | Dennis Hannon | D 99.7% | D+33.2 | D+21.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-03 | REP | Anna Golladay | Chuck Fleischmann | R 99.7% | R+33.2 | R+34.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MS-02 | DEM | Bennie Thompson | Ron Eller | D 99.7% | D+33.5 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-24 | DEM | Salud Carbajal | Robert Smith | D 99.7% | D+33.8 | D+27.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-10 | DEM | Bradley Schneider | Republican candidate (IL-10) | D 99.7% | D+33.7 | D+23.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-06 | DEM | Debbie Dingell | Heather Smiley | D 99.7% | D+34.3 | D+25.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-01 | REP | Cliff Johnson | Trent Kelly | R 99.7% | R+33.8 | R+35.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-02 | DEM | Jared Huffman | Robin Littau | D 99.7% | D+34.4 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-20 | REP | Sandra Van Scotter | Vince Fong | R 99.7% | R+33.6 | R+31.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| LA-01 | REP | Lauren Jewett | Steve Scalise | R 99.7% | R+34.1 | R+39.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-52 | DEM | Juan Vargas | Jeff Belle | D 99.7% | D+34.9 | D+22.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-12 | DEM | Adam Hamawy | Gregg Mele | D 99.7% | D+37.5 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| LA-03 | REP | Tia Lebrun | Clay Higgins | R 99.7% | R+34.2 | R+35.4 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-03 | DEM | Lori Trahan | Gary Grossi | D 99.8% | D+34.8 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-16 | DEM | Veronica Escobar | Republican candidate (TX-16) | D 99.8% | D+35.3 | D+21.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-01 | REP | Gay Valimont | Jimmy Patronis | R 99.8% | R+36.0 | R+36.0 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| HI-02 | DEM | Jill Tokuda | Brenton Awa | D 99.8% | D+36.1 | D+24.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-04 | DEM | Jake Auchincloss | Republican candidate (MA-04) | D 99.8% | D+35.9 | D+22.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-15 | REP | Jennifer Todd | Mary Miller | R 99.8% | R+35.9 | R+39.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MD-05 | DEM | Adrian Boafo | Chris Chaffee | D 99.8% | D+39.9 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| RI-01 | DEM | Gabriel Amo | Republican candidate (RI-01) | D 99.8% | D+36.7 | D+24.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-07 | DEM | Elizabeth Fletcher | Alexander Hale | D 99.8% | D+36.4 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| UT-03 | REP | Kent Udell | Celeste Maloy | R 99.8% | R+36.8 | R+42.1 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WV-02 | REP | Ahsan Parsi | Riley Moore | R 99.8% | R+36.0 | R+39.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| WY-SEN | REP | James Byrd | Harriet Hageman | R 99.8% | R+40.3 | R+46.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MO-07 | REP | Missi Hesketh | Eric Burlison | R 99.8% | R+37.3 | R+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| HI-01 | DEM | Ed Case | Maxwell Frazier | D 99.8% | D+36.9 | D+26.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-01 | DEM | Suzan DelBene | Mary Silva | D 99.8% | D+37.5 | D+30.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-04 | REP | Tamara Wilson | Jim Jordan | R 99.9% | R+38.5 | R+42.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| OH-02 | REP | Jennifer Mazzuckelli | David Taylor | R 99.9% | R+38.4 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| MA-02 | DEM | Jim McGovern | Republican candidate (MA-02) | D 99.9% | D+38.7 | D+26.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CT-04 | DEM | Jim Himes | Michael Goldstein | D 99.9% | D+38.5 | D+26.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-12 | REP | Julie Fortier | Mike Bost | R 99.9% | R+38.8 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-28 | DEM | Judy Chu | April Verlato | D 99.9% | D+39.0 | D+28.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-10 | DEM | Maxwell Frost | Stuart Farber | D 99.9% | D+40.4 | D+26.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-05 | DEM | Mary Scanlon | Melvin Johnakin | D 99.9% | D+39.5 | D+30.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WV-SEN | REP | Rachel Fetty Anderson | Shelley Moore Capito | R 99.9% | R+39.9 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| CA-32 | DEM | Brad Sherman | Larry Thompson | D 99.9% | D+39.6 | D+28.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-13 | DEM | Jasmine Clark | Jonathan Chavez | D 99.9% | D+44.8 | D+42.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NC-02 | DEM | Deborah Ross | Eugene Douglass | D 99.9% | D+40.0 | D+35.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| SC-06 | DEM | Jim Clyburn | John Peterson | D 99.9% | D+40.1 | D+25.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-09 | REP | Joy Powers | Morgan Griffith | R 99.9% | R+40.5 | R+43.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AR-04 | REP | James Russell | Bruce Westerman | R 99.9% | R+40.5 | R+39.3 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| AZ-07 | DEM | Adelita Grijalva | Daniel Butierez | D 99.9% | D+40.7 | D+25.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-02 | DEM | Donna Miller | Calvin Coleman | D 99.9% | D+45.6 | D+35.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| PA-13 | REP | Elizabeth Farnham | John Joyce | R 99.9% | R+40.4 | R+45.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-02 | REP | Megan Wingfield | Brett Guthrie | R 99.9% | R+41.4 | R+40.4 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SC-03 | REP | Eunice Lehmacher | Sheri Biggs | R 99.9% | R+42.0 | R+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| IL-09 | DEM | Daniel Biss | John Elleson | D 99.9% | D+45.6 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MS-04 | REP | Jeffrey Hulum | Mike Ezell | R 99.9% | R+42.4 | R+41.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| OK-03 | REP | Jules Roberson | Frank Lucas | R 99.9% | R+42.5 | R+44.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-13 | REP | Mark Nair | Ronny Jackson | R 99.9% | R+41.5 | R+45.9 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| WV-01 | REP | Vince George | Carol Miller | R 99.9% | R+42.3 | R+44.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| MA-08 | DEM | Stephen Lynch | Gavin Solomon | D 99.9% | D+43.8 | D+29.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AL-03 | REP | Lee McInnis | Mike Rogers | R 100.0% | R+46.2 | R+45.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-10 | DEM | Mark DeSaulnier | Jeff Frese | D 100.0% | D+43.9 | D+36.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| MN-04 | DEM | Betty McCollum | Paul Wikstrom | D 100.0% | D+44.3 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-01 | DEM | Suzanne Bonamici | Barbara Kahl | D 100.0% | D+44.9 | D+39.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| VA-04 | DEM | Jennifer McClellan | Robert Murray | D 100.0% | D+43.1 | D+34.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| AR-01 | REP | Terri Green | Rick Crawford | R 100.0% | R+44.9 | R+45.0 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-19 | REP | Kyle Rable | Tom Sell | R 100.0% | R+49.2 | R+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-19 | DEM | Jimmy Panetta | Peter Verbica | D 100.0% | D+44.9 | D+37.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-03 | DEM | Bobby Scott | Edwin Rivera | D 100.0% | D+45.8 | D+36.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-01 | REP | Kaylee Peterson | Russ Fulcher | R 100.0% | R+45.8 | R+44.1 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| KY-01 | REP | Drew Williams | James Comer | R 100.0% | R+46.5 | R+46.5 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NE-03 | REP | Becky Stille | Adrian Smith | R 100.0% | R+49.3 | R+53.7 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| TX-01 | REP | Democratic candidate (TX-01) | Nathaniel Moran | R 100.0% | R+49.5 | R+48.2 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| CA-18 | DEM | Zoe Lofgren | Shane Lewis | D 100.0% | D+47.9 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-02 | DEM | Joe Neguse | Kelley Dennison | D 100.0% | D+46.0 | D+41.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-03 | DEM | Delia Ramirez | Angel Oakley | D 100.0% | D+50.2 | D+34.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-05 | DEM | Mike Quigley | Tom Hanson | D 100.0% | D+46.6 | D+38.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-20 | DEM | Joaquin Castro | Edgardo Baez | D 100.0% | D+46.8 | D+32.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-33 | DEM | Colin Allred | Patrick Gillespie | D 100.0% | D+50.1 | D+36.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-11 | DEM | James Walkinshaw | Arthur Purves | D 100.0% | D+48.3 | D+37.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-08 | DEM | John Garamendi | Rudy Recile | D 100.0% | D+49.8 | D+37.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-30 | DEM | Laura Friedman | Scott Alan Meyers | D 100.0% | D+50.1 | D+42.8 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| IL-01 | DEM | Jonathan Jackson | Christian Maxwell | D 100.0% | D+49.7 | D+35.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IN-07 | DEM | Andre Carson | Felipe Rios | D 100.0% | D+48.0 | D+42.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-13 | DEM | Donavan McKinney | T.P. Nykoriak | D 100.0% | D+56.3 | D+44.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-08 | REP | Christopher Reichard | Jason Smith | R 100.0% | R+49.6 | R+53.5 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| NC-04 | DEM | Valerie Foushee | Mahesh Ganorkar | D 100.0% | D+49.4 | D+46.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-08 | DEM | Rob Menendez | Republican candidate (NJ-08) | D 100.0% | D+49.2 | D+33.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-03 | DEM | Joyce Beatty | Republican candidate (OH-03) | D 100.0% | D+49.9 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| OK-02 | REP | Erik Terwey | Josh Brecheen | R 100.0% | R+51.4 | R+55.6 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| PA-02 | DEM | Brendan Boyle | Jessica Arriaga | D 100.0% | D+51.0 | D+38.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-29 | DEM | Sylvia Garcia | Martha Fierro | D 100.0% | D+49.7 | D+34.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VT-01 | DEM | Rebecca Balint | Gerald Malloy | D 100.0% | D+39.0 | D+34.1 | 2 | — | Safe D |
| WA-09 | DEM | Adam Smith | Doug Basler | D 100.0% | D+51.9 | D+43.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WI-02 | DEM | Mark Pocan | (no Republican filed) | D 100.0% | D+48.9 | D+41.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-16 | DEM | Sam Liccardo | Peter Sundin Soulé | D 100.0% | D+58.3 | D+51.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-17 | DEM | Rohit Khanna | Ritesh Tandon | D 100.0% | D+56.4 | D+43.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-36 | DEM | Ted Lieu | Houston Brignano | D 100.0% | D+49.8 | D+41.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-44 | DEM | Nanette Barragan | Genevieve Angel | D 100.0% | D+56.6 | D+41.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CO-01 | DEM | Melat Kiros | Christy Peterson | D 100.0% | D+66.0 | D+59.2 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| FL-20 | DEM | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | Brent Andersen | D 100.0% | D+56.0 | D+40.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| FL-24 | DEM | Oliver Gilbert | Te Brown | D 100.0% | D+58.4 | D+43.9 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-06 | DEM | Lucia McBath | Kevin Martin | D 100.0% | D+54.7 | D+50.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| KY-05 | REP | Ned Pillersdorf | Harold Rogers | R 100.0% | R+61.8 | R+63.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| LA-02 | DEM | Troy Carter | Republican candidate (LA-02) | D 100.0% | D+58.4 | D+50.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NC-12 | DEM | Alma Adams | John Codiga | D 100.0% | D+53.9 | D+48.4 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NY-14 | DEM | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Diamant Hysenaj | D 100.0% | D+55.2 | D+38.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-16 | DEM | George Latimer | Joseph Cinquemani | D 100.0% | D+52.7 | D+36.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OR-03 | DEM | Maxine Dexter | Loran Ayles | D 100.0% | D+52.4 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TN-01 | REP | Kristi Burke | Diana Harshbarger | R 100.0% | R+52.5 | R+57.3 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| TX-30 | DEM | Frederick Haynes | Sholdon Daniels | D 100.0% | D+61.2 | D+50.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| WI-04 | DEM | Gwen Moore | Tim Rogers | D 100.0% | D+57.8 | D+53.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MT-SEN | REP | Alani Bankhead | Kurt Alme | R 100.0% | R+31.7 | R+19.3 | 8 | — | Safe RIND 2% |
| AK-01 | REP | (No Democrat) | Nick Begich III | R 100.0% | R+11.1 | R+12.7 | 3 | 0.2% | Safe R |
| AL-04 | REP | Amanda Pusczek | Robert Aderholt | R 100.0% | R+63.7 | R+65.6 | 0 | — | Safe Rredrawn |
| AZ-03 | DEM | Yassamin Ansari | Kirt Burgess | D 100.0% | D+61.1 | D+43.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| CA-04 | DEM | Mike Thompson | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+27.8 | D+16.9 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-07 | DEM | Doris Matsui | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+26.3 | D+15.3 | 0 | 0.1% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-11 | DEM | Scott Wiener | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+80.6 | D+72.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-12 | DEM | Lateefah Simon | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+87.9 | D+79.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-14 | DEM | Aisha Wahab | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+52.5 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-15 | DEM | Kevin Mullin | Charles Hoelter | D 100.0% | D+66.7 | D+52.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| CA-29 | DEM | Luz Rivas | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+55.5 | D+39.1 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-34 | DEM | Jimmy Gomez | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+74.9 | D+56.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-37 | DEM | Sydney Kamlager-Dove | (no Republican — top-two) | D 100.0% | D+85.0 | D+65.7 | 0 | — | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-40 | REP | (no Democrat — top-two) | Ken Calvert | D 100.0% | R+9.7 | R+11.1 | 0 | 0.5% | Safe Dsame-party · redrawn |
| CA-43 | DEM | Maxine Waters | Cristian Morales | D 100.0% | D+71.6 | D+54.6 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| GA-04 | DEM | Henry Johnson | Jim Duffie | D 100.0% | D+65.5 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| GA-05 | DEM | Nikema Williams | Republican candidate (GA-05) | D 100.0% | D+75.2 | D+73.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| IL-07 | DEM | La Shawn Ford | Chad Koppie | D 100.0% | D+80.9 | D+68.4 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-05 | DEM | Katherine Clark | Republican candidate (MA-05) | D 100.0% | D+59.6 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MA-07 | DEM | Ayanna Pressley | Republican candidate (MA-07) | D 100.0% | D+84.6 | D+67.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-04 | DEM | Glenn Ivey | Republican candidate (MD-04) | D 100.0% | D+88.6 | D+77.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-07 | DEM | Kweisi Mfume | Republican candidate (MD-07) | D 100.0% | D+70.3 | D+61.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MD-08 | DEM | Jamie Raskin | Cheryl Riley | D 100.0% | D+70.9 | D+59.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MI-12 | DEM | Rashida Tlaib | James D. Hooper | D 100.0% | D+58.8 | D+42.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MN-05 | DEM | Ilhan Omar | John Nagel | D 100.0% | D+65.7 | D+64.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| MO-01 | DEM | Wesley Bell | Paul Berry | D 100.0% | D+61.1 | D+59.3 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| NJ-10 | DEM | Lamonica McIver | Carmen Bucco | D 100.0% | D+70.8 | D+52.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-05 | DEM | Gregory Meeks | George Marsh | D 100.0% | D+66.1 | D+48.1 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-07 | DEM | Claire Valdez | Melvin Rivera | D 100.0% | D+65.8 | D+51.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-08 | DEM | Hakeem Jeffries | Lewis Mizrahi | D 100.0% | D+65.8 | D+47.9 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-09 | DEM | Yvette Clarke | Joel Anabilah-Azumah | D 100.0% | D+61.8 | D+44.5 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-10 | DEM | Brad Lander | Jennifer Moore | D 100.0% | D+80.6 | D+64.6 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-12 | DEM | Micah Lasher | Caroline Shinkle | D 100.0% | D+78.5 | D+67.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-13 | DEM | Darializa Avila Chevalier | Republican candidate (NY-13) | D 100.0% | D+82.5 | D+65.0 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| NY-15 | DEM | Ritchie Torres | Republican candidate (NY-15) | D 100.0% | D+74.3 | D+54.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| OH-11 | DEM | Shontel Brown | Mike Kirchner | D 100.0% | D+61.7 | D+56.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| PA-03 | DEM | Chris Rabb | Alexander Schnell | D 100.0% | D+82.1 | D+79.3 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| TX-18 | DEM | Christian Menefee | Republican candidate (TX-18) | D 100.0% | D+73.9 | D+58.2 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| TX-37 | DEM | Greg Casar | Lauren Pena | D 100.0% | D+69.3 | D+59.5 | 0 | — | Safe Dredrawn |
| VA-08 | DEM | Don Beyer | Tony Sabio | D 100.0% | D+64.1 | D+52.7 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| WA-07 | DEM | Pramila Jayapal | Nirav Sheth | D 100.0% | D+78.3 | D+77.8 | 0 | — | Safe D |
| ID-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Jim Risch | R 100.0% | R+39.8 | R+35.8 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| NE-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Pete Ricketts | R 100.0% | R+21.3 | R+20.2 | 0 | — | Safe R |
| SD-SEN | REP | (No Democrat) | Mike Rounds | R 100.0% | R+29.2 | R+28.9 | 0 | — | Safe R |