Ohio — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Amy Acton
42%
Republican
Vivek Ramaswamy
58%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.6
- 80% range
- R+11.8 to D+8.6
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.14×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- R+0.3
- Fundamentals
- R+1.8
- Blended
- R+1.0
- Similar-race shift
- +1.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- August 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.5%
- Republican
- 47.8%
- Undecided / other
- 4.6%
- Spread between polls
- 1.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+3.1