Virginia 5th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Thomas Perriello
22%
Republican
John McGuire
78%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+8.3
- 80% range
- R+22.2 to D+5.5
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.58%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+7.8
- Blended
- R+7.8
- Similar-race shift
- −0.2
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.1
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.2
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+7.6