Michigan 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Callie Barr
8%
Republican
Jack Bergman
92%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+15.6
- 80% range
- R+29.5 to R+1.7
- Partisan lean
- R+20.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.20%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+15.0
- Blended
- R+15.0
- Similar-race shift
- +0.8
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+20.8
- Elasticity
- 0.89
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.9
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+15.7