California 6th District
Currently held by an independent · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Richard Pan
77%
Republican
Kevin Kiley
23%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+11.4
- 80% range
- R+8.9 to D+31.8
- Partisan lean
- D+10.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.63%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.85×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
18%82%
Polls 18%Fundamentals 82%
- Polling average
- D+4.0
- Fundamentals
- D+18.1
- Blended
- D+12.0
- Similar-race shift
- −1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 14.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 16, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.0%
- Republican
- 35.0%
- Undecided / other
- 26.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+10.1
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- −0.6
- Fundraising
- +4.5
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+19.1