New Jersey 7th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Rebecca Bennett
54%
Republican
Tom Kean Jr.
46%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+0.9
- 80% range
- R+10.4 to D+12.4
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.42%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.36×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- D+0.2
- Fundamentals
- D+1.7
- Blended
- D+1.5
- Similar-race shift
- −1.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- May 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.1%
- Republican
- 44.9%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.5
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+3.3