Mississippi — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Scott Colom
5%
Republican
Cindy Hyde-Smith
95%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+15.4
- 80% range
- R+27.3 to R+3.5
- Partisan lean
- R+21.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.45×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
19%81%
Polls 19%Fundamentals 81%
- Polling average
- R+6.8
- Fundamentals
- R+20.6
- Blended
- R+14.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 13.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- April 12, 2026
- Democrat
- 42.1%
- Republican
- 48.9%
- Undecided / other
- 9.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+21.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.1
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+20.9