Washington 3rd District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
47%
Republican
John Braun
53%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.8
- 80% range
- R+12.0 to D+10.4
- Partisan lean
- R+3.3
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.34%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.32×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
24%76%
Polls 24%Fundamentals 76%
- Polling average
- R+4.8
- Fundamentals
- D+7.1
- Blended
- R+0.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- July 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 42.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 11.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+3.3
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.1
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+6.9