Rhode Island — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Jack Reed
99%
Republican
Raymond McKay
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+25.4
- 80% range
- D+11.4 to D+39.3
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.81×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
85%
Polls 15%Fundamentals 85%
- Polling average
- D+18.0
- Fundamentals
- D+29.0
- Blended
- D+26.0
- Similar-race shift
- −1.6
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 23, 2026
- Democrat
- 52.0%
- Republican
- 34.0%
- Undecided / other
- 14.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.3
- Elasticity
- 1.06
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.8
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+30.6