Texas 15th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Bobby Pulido
18%
Republican
Monica De La Cruz
82%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+7.1
- 80% range
- R+17.3 to D+3.1
- Partisan lean
- R+13.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.53%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.11×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
23%77%
Polls 23%Fundamentals 77%
- Polling average
- R+1.8
- Fundamentals
- R+13.1
- Blended
- R+6.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 11.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- May 25, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.1%
- Republican
- 47.9%
- Undecided / other
- 6.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+13.8
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.7
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+13.1