California 4th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026 · same-party (top-two) contest
Democrat
Mike Thompson
100.0%
Republican
(no Republican — top-two)
0.0%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+27.8
- 80% range
- D+13.9 to D+41.7
- Partisan lean
- D+16.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.06%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+28.4
- Blended
- D+28.4
- Similar-race shift
- −1.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.9
- Elasticity
- 1.05
- Incumbency
- +1.9
- Candidate experience
- +0.8
- Fundraising
- +4.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+29.8