Alaska 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
(No Democrat)
0.0%
Republican
Nick Begich III
100.0%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+11.1
- 80% range
- R+21.4 to R+0.8
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.23%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
27%74%
Polls 27%Fundamentals 74%
- Polling average
- R+12.0
- Fundamentals
- R+9.9
- Blended
- R+10.4
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- June 29, 2026
- Democrat
- 39.0%
- Republican
- 51.0%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- −0.5
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+10.6