Minnesota — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Amy Klobuchar
92%
Republican
Lisa Demuth
8%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+13.3
- 80% range
- D+1.4 to D+25.2
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.45×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
36%64%
Polls 36%Fundamentals 64%
- Polling average
- D+16.9
- Fundamentals
- D+8.1
- Blended
- D+13.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 4
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 52.9%
- Republican
- 36.0%
- Undecided / other
- 11.1%
- Spread between polls
- 2.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+7.5