Michigan 7th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
William Lawrence
47%
Republican
Tom Barrett
53%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.6
- 80% range
- R+11.3 to D+10.1
- Partisan lean
- R+0.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.44%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+1.8
- Fundamentals
- D+0.2
- Blended
- Even
- Similar-race shift
- +0.9
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.1%
- Republican
- 48.9%
- Undecided / other
- 4.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.4
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.3
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+0.8