Pennsylvania 10th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Janelle Stelson
44%
Republican
Scott Perry
56%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+1.1
- 80% range
- R+10.8 to D+8.7
- Partisan lean
- R+4.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.48%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.03×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
22%78%
Polls 22%Fundamentals 78%
- Polling average
- D+2.2
- Fundamentals
- R+1.2
- Blended
- R+0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- April 23, 2026
- Democrat
- 49.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 4.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.2 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+4.7
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+1.2