New York 20th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Paul Tonko
99%
Republican
Ralph Ambrosio
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+26.5
- 80% range
- D+12.7 to D+40.5
- Partisan lean
- D+16.0
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.07%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+27.2
- Blended
- D+27.2
- Similar-race shift
- −1.4
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.0
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- +3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.8
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+28.6