Florida 27th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Eliott Rodriguez
16%
Republican
Maria Salazar
84%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+9.3
- 80% range
- R+21.1 to D+2.6
- Partisan lean
- R+10.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.45%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.45×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+6.8
- Fundamentals
- R+8.8
- Blended
- R+8.7
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- March 8, 2026
- Democrat
- 41.1%
- Republican
- 47.9%
- Undecided / other
- 11.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.8
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.4
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+8.5