Maine — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Hannah Pingree
85%
Republican
Robert Charles
15%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+8.4
- 80% range
- R+2.0 to D+18.8
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.16×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
31%69%
Polls 31%Fundamentals 69%
- Polling average
- D+11.7
- Fundamentals
- D+7.9
- Blended
- D+9.1
- Similar-race shift
- −1.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.9 pts
PollingDRI matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.8%
- Republican
- 37.1%
- Independent
- 7.9%
- Undecided / other
- 6.2%
- Spread between polls
- 1.5 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+8.0
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+9.1