Arizona — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Katie Hobbs
79%
Republican
Andy Biggs
21%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+6.6
- 80% range
- R+4.0 to D+17.3
- Partisan lean
- R+3.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.21×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+8.6
- Fundamentals
- D+5.7
- Blended
- D+7.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- August 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.3%
- Republican
- 39.6%
- Undecided / other
- 11.0%
- Spread between polls
- 3.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+3.8
- Elasticity
- 1.03
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+6.0