Florida 22nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Pia Dandiya
53%
Republican
Casey Askar
47%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+0.6
- 80% range
- R+10.8 to D+12.0
- Partisan lean
- R+6.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.41%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.36×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- Even
- Fundamentals
- D+1.3
- Blended
- D+1.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 12, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.0%
- Republican
- 50.0%
- Undecided / other
- 0.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+6.9
- Elasticity
- 1.15
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +4.2
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+1.6