Alaska — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · ranked-choice voting
Democrat
Tom Begich
39%
Republican
Bernadette Wilson
61%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+2.3
- 80% range
- R+12.8 to D+8.2
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.19×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
20%80%
Polls 20%Fundamentals 80%
- Polling average
- D+1.8
- Fundamentals
- R+4.2
- Blended
- R+1.7
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 1, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.9%
- Republican
- 49.1%
- Undecided / other
- 0.0%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 0.95
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.2
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+4.6