Wisconsin — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
David Crowley
68%
Republican
Tom Tiffany
32%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+3.7
- 80% range
- R+6.9 to D+14.4
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
45%55%
Polls 45%Fundamentals 55%
- Polling average
- D+3.5
- Fundamentals
- D+4.9
- Blended
- D+4.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.4 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 5
- Distinct pollsters
- 4
- Most recent
- August 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 47.2%
- Republican
- 43.6%
- Undecided / other
- 9.2%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Elasticity
- 0.90
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+3.7