California — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Xavier Becerra
99%
Republican
Steve Hilton
1%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+19.6
- 80% range
- D+9.2 to D+29.9
- Partisan lean
- D+23.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.16×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
21%79%
Polls 21%Fundamentals 79%
- Polling average
- D+18.1
- Fundamentals
- D+20.7
- Blended
- D+20.2
- Similar-race shift
- −2.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 9, 2026
- Democrat
- 55.0%
- Republican
- 36.9%
- Undecided / other
- 8.1%
- Spread between polls
- 2.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+23.4
- Elasticity
- 1.12
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+22.7