Pennsylvania 7th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Bob Brooks
48%
Republican
Ryan Mackenzie
52%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.5
- 80% range
- R+11.8 to D+10.9
- Partisan lean
- R+1.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.36%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.34×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- D+0.2
- Fundamentals
- D+0.2
- Blended
- D+0.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.5
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 2, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.1%
- Republican
- 44.9%
- Undecided / other
- 10.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.9
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.6
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+0.6