Georgia — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Jon Ossoff
89%
Republican
Mike Collins
11%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+9.3
- 80% range
- R+0.6 to D+19.1
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.05×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+7.7
- Fundamentals
- D+12.4
- Blended
- D+9.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 8
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.6%
- Republican
- 42.9%
- Undecided / other
- 6.5%
- Spread between polls
- 2.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.3
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- +4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.9
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+12.3