Pennsylvania 8th District
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Paige Cognetti
33%
Republican
Rob Bresnahan
67%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+3.6
- 80% range
- R+14.3 to D+7.0
- Partisan lean
- R+6.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.05%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+1.8
- Fundamentals
- R+3.1
- Blended
- R+3.0
- Similar-race shift
- +0.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.3 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- June 23, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 8.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+6.8
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.5
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+3.5