Connecticut — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
Ned Lamont
96%
Republican
Ryan Fazio
4%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+18.6
- 80% range
- D+5.4 to D+31.9
- Partisan lean
- D+16.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.68×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
21%79%
Polls 21%Fundamentals 79%
- Polling average
- D+19.6
- Fundamentals
- D+19.1
- Blended
- D+19.3
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.5 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- July 26, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.2%
- Republican
- 30.6%
- Undecided / other
- 19.2%
- Spread between polls
- 3.2 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+16.5
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+20.9