Illinois — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · incumbent running
Democrat
JB Pritzker
96%
Republican
Darren Bailey
4%
ForecastLikely D
- Projected margin
- D+17.6
- 80% range
- D+5.3 to D+29.9
- Partisan lean
- D+13.0
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.52×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
89%
Polls 11%Fundamentals 89%
- Polling average
- D+20.0
- Fundamentals
- D+18.0
- Blended
- D+18.2
- Similar-race shift
- −0.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- November 24, 2025
- Democrat
- 54.0%
- Republican
- 34.0%
- Undecided / other
- 12.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+13.0
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- +5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+18.5