California 26th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Jacqui Irwin
98%
Republican
Samuel Gallucci
2%
ForecastSafe D
- Projected margin
- D+24.8
- 80% range
- D+9.6 to D+40.0
- Partisan lean
- D+17.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.13%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+25.4
- Blended
- D+25.4
- Similar-race shift
- −1.8
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+17.8
- Elasticity
- 1.06
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.9
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+27.2