California 48th District
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Marni von Wilpert
76%
Republican
Jim Desmond
24%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+8.1
- 80% range
- R+7.0 to D+23.3
- Partisan lean
- D+4.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.90%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+8.7
- Blended
- D+8.7
- Similar-race shift
- −0.8
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+4.8
- Elasticity
- 0.97
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −0.4
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+9.6