Tennessee — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Jerri Green
6%
Republican
Marsha Blackburn
94%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+19.9
- 80% range
- R+36.5 to R+3.4
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.23×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
21%79%
Polls 21%Fundamentals 79%
- Polling average
- R+24.0
- Fundamentals
- R+15.9
- Blended
- R+19.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.5
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- April 27, 2026
- Democrat
- 27.0%
- Republican
- 51.0%
- Undecided / other
- 22.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+28.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+17.4