South Carolina — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Jermaine Johnson
24%
Republican
Alan Wilson
76%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+8.9
- 80% range
- R+25.4 to D+7.6
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.23×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
89%
Polls 11%Fundamentals 89%
- Polling average
- R+11.8
- Fundamentals
- R+7.9
- Blended
- R+8.3
- Similar-race shift
- +0.4
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 35.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 18.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+16.2
- Elasticity
- 1.04
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+8.3