Arizona 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Amish Shah
56%
Republican
Jay Feely
44%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+1.8
- 80% range
- R+13.3 to D+16.9
- Partisan lean
- R+1.6
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.08%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- D+2.5
- Blended
- D+2.5
- Similar-race shift
- −1.3
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+1.6
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- +0.2
- Fundraising
- −0.1
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+3.8