North Carolina 3rd District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Raymond Smith
14%
Republican
Greg Murphy
86%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+11.6
- 80% range
- R+25.5 to D+2.3
- Partisan lean
- R+12.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.36%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+11.1
- Blended
- R+11.1
- Similar-race shift
- +0.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.1
- Elasticity
- 1.01
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −2.8
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+11.6