South Dakota 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Nicole Gronli
4%
Republican
Marty Jackley
96%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+21.0
- 80% range
- R+36.2 to R+5.8
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.11%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+20.4
- Blended
- R+20.4
- Similar-race shift
- +1.5
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+28.9
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+21.9