Iowa 2nd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Lindsay James
39%
Republican
Joe Mitchell
61%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+2.6
- 80% range
- R+14.4 to D+9.2
- Partisan lean
- R+8.4
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.15%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.44×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+2.8
- Fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Blended
- R+2.0
- Similar-race shift
- +1.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- July 19, 2026
- Democrat
- 44.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 9.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+8.4
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+3.2