New York 21st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Blake Gendebien
9%
Republican
Anthony Constantino
91%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+11.4
- 80% range
- R+22.2 to R+0.6
- Partisan lean
- R+19.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.24%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.24×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
18%82%
Polls 18%Fundamentals 82%
- Polling average
- R+7.5
- Fundamentals
- R+11.5
- Blended
- R+10.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 4.0 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 40.8%
- Republican
- 48.3%
- Undecided / other
- 9.1%
- Spread between polls
- 8.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+19.2
- Elasticity
- 0.99
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.7
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+12.1