Minnesota — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Peggy Flanagan
84%
Republican
Michele Tafoya
16%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+9.1
- 80% range
- R+2.8 to D+20.8
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.43×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
21%79%
Polls 21%Fundamentals 79%
- Polling average
- D+5.0
- Fundamentals
- D+13.2
- Blended
- D+9.7
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- August 17, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.0%
- Republican
- 41.0%
- Undecided / other
- 11.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.1 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- D+5.4
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.7
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+12.1