Louisiana 4th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Matthew Gromlich
0.4%
Republican
Mike Johnson
99.6%
ForecastSafe R
- Projected margin
- R+32.9
- 80% range
- R+46.8 to R+19.0
- Partisan lean
- R+33.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+32.3
- Blended
- R+32.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+33.2
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- −1.9
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −4.4
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+33.4