Texas — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Gina Hinojosa
20%
Republican
Greg Abbott
80%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+6.4
- 80% range
- R+16.2 to D+3.5
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.06×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
57%43%
Polls 57%Fundamentals 43%
- Polling average
- R+4.0
- Fundamentals
- R+10.0
- Blended
- R+5.8
- Similar-race shift
- +0.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 6.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 14
- Distinct pollsters
- 11
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 44.9%
- Republican
- 48.8%
- Undecided / other
- 6.2%
- Spread between polls
- 2.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Elasticity
- 1.10
- Incumbency
- −5.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+10.3