Ohio — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Sherrod Brown
63%
Republican
Jon Husted
37%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+2.7
- 80% range
- R+7.4 to D+12.7
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.10×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
54%46%
Polls 54%Fundamentals 46%
- Polling average
- D+5.4
- Fundamentals
- R+4.3
- Blended
- D+3.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.2
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 9.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- August 13, 2026
- Democrat
- 50.4%
- Republican
- 44.9%
- Undecided / other
- 4.7%
- Spread between polls
- 3.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+10.2
- Elasticity
- 0.94
- Incumbency
- −4.2
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+5.5