Iowa — Governor
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Rob Sand
61%
Republican
Zach Lahn
39%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+2.3
- 80% range
- R+8.4 to D+13.0
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.22×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- D+5.2
- Fundamentals
- R+3.7
- Blended
- D+2.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 8.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 7
- Distinct pollsters
- 7
- Most recent
- August 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.9%
- Republican
- 43.7%
- Undecided / other
- 7.4%
- Spread between polls
- 2.3 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+4.7