Georgia 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Amanda Hollowell
14%
Republican
James Kingston
86%
ForecastLikely R
- Projected margin
- R+12.8
- 80% range
- R+28.0 to D+2.4
- Partisan lean
- R+15.0
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.37%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.01×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
100.0%
Fundamentals 100.0%
- Polling average
- no polls
- Fundamentals
- R+12.2
- Blended
- R+12.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.2
Polling
No public polling of this matchup. The forecast rests on fundamentals plus the polling residuals of demographically and politically similar races — which is the normal case: most of the 435 House seats are never polled.
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+15.0
- Elasticity
- 0.92
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- −3.9
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+12.4