Texas — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
James Talarico
38%
Republican
Ken Paxton
62%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+2.5
- 80% range
- R+12.8 to D+7.9
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.16×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
58%42%
Polls 58%Fundamentals 42%
- Polling average
- R+0.6
- Fundamentals
- R+3.6
- Blended
- R+1.9
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 3.1 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 16
- Distinct pollsters
- 13
- Most recent
- August 10, 2026
- Democrat
- 46.1%
- Republican
- 46.7%
- Undecided / other
- 7.1%
- Spread between polls
- 1.8 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.5
- Elasticity
- 1.10
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.4
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+3.9