Virginia 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Shannon Taylor
37%
Republican
Rob Wittman
63%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+3.7
- 80% range
- R+18.9 to D+11.6
- Partisan lean
- R+5.1
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.86%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 2.03×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
91%
Polls 9%Fundamentals 91%
- Polling average
- R+4.8
- Fundamentals
- R+2.9
- Blended
- R+3.1
- Similar-race shift
- −0.7
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 1.9 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 1
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- August 9, 2025
- Democrat
- 38.1%
- Republican
- 42.9%
- Undecided / other
- 19.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+5.1
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.3
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+2.2