Texas 23rd District
Currently held by a Republican · open seat · district redrawn for 2026
Democrat
Katy Padilla Stout
29%
Republican
Brandon Herrera
71%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+5.8
- 80% range
- R+19.8 to D+8.2
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.76%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.80×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
86%
Polls 14%Fundamentals 86%
- Polling average
- R+5.8
- Fundamentals
- R+5.1
- Blended
- R+5.2
- Similar-race shift
- +0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.7 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 1
- Most recent
- March 11, 2026
- Democrat
- 38.1%
- Republican
- 43.9%
- Undecided / other
- 18.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+12.7
- Elasticity
- 1.08
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +3.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+5.4