Iowa 1st District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
Christina Bohannan
49%
Republican
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
51%
ForecastTilt R
- Projected margin
- R+0.3
- 80% range
- R+12.3 to D+11.8
- Partisan lean
- R+6.8
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.29%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.46×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
18%82%
Polls 18%Fundamentals 82%
- Polling average
- D+5.0
- Fundamentals
- R+2.6
- Blended
- D+0.3
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 7.6 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 2
- Distinct pollsters
- 2
- Most recent
- July 16, 2026
- Democrat
- 40.0%
- Republican
- 35.0%
- Undecided / other
- 14.0%
- Spread between polls
- 0.0 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+6.8
- Elasticity
- 1.02
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +1.4
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+3.6