Arizona 6th District
Currently held by a Republican · incumbent running
Democrat
JoAnna Mendoza
56%
Republican
Juan Ciscomani
44%
ForecastTilt D
- Projected margin
- D+1.2
- 80% range
- R+8.7 to D+11.0
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.75%
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.05×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
27%74%
Polls 27%Fundamentals 74%
- Polling average
- R+1.8
- Fundamentals
- D+3.4
- Blended
- D+1.8
- Similar-race shift
- −0.3
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 5.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 3
- Distinct pollsters
- 3
- Most recent
- June 11, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.1%
- Republican
- 46.9%
- Undecided / other
- 8.1%
- Spread between polls
- 1.7 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+0.2
- Elasticity
- 0.88
- Incumbency
- −3.4
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +2.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+3.7