Michigan — Governor
Currently held by a Democrat · open seat
Democrat
Jocelyn Benson
71%
Republican
John James
29%
ForecastLean D
- Projected margin
- D+4.4
- 80% range
- R+6.0 to D+14.8
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
50%51%
Polls 50%Fundamentals 51%
- Polling average
- D+5.1
- Fundamentals
- D+4.9
- Blended
- D+5.0
- Similar-race shift
- +1.1
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 0.2 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 7
- Distinct pollsters
- 6
- Most recent
- August 11, 2026
- Democrat
- 48.3%
- Republican
- 43.2%
- Undecided / other
- 8.4%
- Spread between polls
- 2.2 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Elasticity
- 0.98
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- 0.0
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- D+3.8