Iowa — U.S. Senate
Currently held by a Republican · open seat
Democrat
Josh Turek
28%
Republican
Ashley Hinson
72%
ForecastLean R
- Projected margin
- R+4.5
- 80% range
- R+14.8 to D+5.8
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Uncertainty multiplier
- 1.15×
The 80% range comes from 200,000 simulations in which this race’s error is correlated with every other race through the national, state and demographic layers.
How the estimate is built
51%49%
Polls 51%Fundamentals 49%
- Polling average
- R+2.5
- Fundamentals
- R+5.3
- Blended
- R+3.9
- Similar-race shift
- +1.0
- Poll–fundamentals gap
- 2.8 pts
PollingDR matchup
- Polls in window
- 8
- Distinct pollsters
- 8
- Most recent
- August 4, 2026
- Democrat
- 45.5%
- Republican
- 48.0%
- Undecided / other
- 6.5%
- Spread between polls
- 2.8 pts
Fundamentals
- Partisan lean
- R+11.8
- Elasticity
- 1.00
- Incumbency
- 0.0
- Candidate experience
- 0.0
- Fundraising
- +0.2
- National environment
- D+5.3
- Expected margin
- R+6.3